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2014
PALISADE

Regional Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

July 17th, 2014 • Chicago
2014
  PALISADE

Regional Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

July 17th, 2014, Chicago

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Palisade invited attendees from a range of industries to an intensive 1-day conference in Chicago. This “must attend” event proved once again to be an invaluable resource for professionals dealing with risk in any sector. Industry experts presented a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The program also included practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers and consultants. Participants learned how to get the most from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite through example models demonstrating the features that make risk modelling powerful and accessible.

Download presentations from the conference

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A Global Resource

This 2014 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. With over fifteen events on six continents this year alone, the Palisade Risk Conferences have become a truly global resource for decision-makers.

Information about 2014 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Software Presentations      
  Industry Case Studies

Thursday 17 July 2014 · Chicago

Please note the conference schedule may change without notice.

 

08:00 - 09:00
Registration
09:00 - 09:15
WELCOME

Welcome and Palisade Overview
Steve Hunt
Palisade Corporation

09:15 - 9:55
10:00 - 10:45
CASE STUDY

Quantifying Your Supply Chain
Chris Bohn and Joe Rizzo
Aon Risk Solutions

10:45 - 11:15
Break
11:15 - 12:00
CASE STUDY

Risk Analysis in Working Capital Management
Venkat Raman
VR Advisors, LLC

12:05 - 12:50
12:50 - 01:45
Lunch
01:45 - 02:30
CASE STUDY

Forecasting Future Infrastructure Needs: Dealing with Uncertainty and Risk
JD Solomon, PE and Adam Sharpe
CH2M HILL

02:35 - 03:20
CASE STUDY

Retail Price Optimization Using Palisade DecisionTools Suite
Andrew (Drew) Pulvermacher
NightHawk Intelligence

03:25 - 04:00
PLENARY

It's Time: Knowing How and When to Step Up Your Decision Making
Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

04:00 - 06:00
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Chris Bohn

Director and Actuary
Aon Risk Solutions

Christopher (Kip) Bohn is Director and Actuary of Aon Risk Consultants, where he manages actuarial pricing and reserving analyses for various self-insurance programs and captive insurance companies; develops and maintains stochastic models for actuarial, Enterprise Risk Management, supply chain risks and operational risks; provides peer review to ensure adherence to applicable standards of practice; and assists in the overall strategic planning initiatives for the practice.

His special areas of expertise include developing stochastic Monte Carlo simulation models for Aon’s clients; accrual analysis; loss forecasting; captives (from feasibility to implementation to ongoing support); optimal risk financing design; and allocation modeling. He also specializes in supply chain modeling from manufacturing to service organizations, with expertise in the Healthcare, Life Sciences, Financial Services, Construction, Energy, and Retail sectors, as well as experience in insurance risk financing decisions and alternative risk mitigation decisions.

Prior to his role at Aon, Bohn worked at Towers Watson where he did risk management and modeling, and at St. Paul Companies as a pricing and reserving actuary. He received a B.A. in mathematics at University St. Thomas, St. Paul, Minnesota, and is a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst.

  Randy Heffernan

Vice President
Palisade Corporation

Randy Heffernan started with Palisade in 1997, and helped the company expand with its first overseas office in Plymouth, England, in 1998. Further geographic expansions included London in 2002 and Sydney, Australia in 2005. He has held a variety of roles in sales, marketing, and management, and currently oversees much of the corporate operations. Randy works closely with the sales staff to understand client needs and liaise with software development. Randy holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Management and Marketing, and an MBA, both from Cornell University.

  Stephen Hunt, LSSBB

Regional Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Stephen Hunt has been with Palisade since 2003. He started as the Six Sigma Product Manager and 6 years ago took on an additional role as the Regional Sales Manager for the Midwest. He enjoys working with customers from the many different industries that use @RISK. Before joining Palisade, Steve worked in the thin film optics industry for over 15 years with industry leading companies such as Denton Vacuum, Oakley Sunglass and Evaporated Metal Films. During this period, he worked in applied research and development, process and production engineering and engineering management. He was responsible for the creation and re-engineering of optical coating processes and manufacturing techniques. Applications ranged from high volume production cells that produced coatings for sunglasses, telecommunications equipment and medical devices to low volume, high value custom manufacturing of unique parts for satellites and observatory telescopes. Steve is a Lean Six Sigma Black Belt and brings a wide range of experience in manufacturing and engineering.

  Andrew (Drew) Pulvermacher

Chief Probability Officer
Nighthawk Intelligence

Andrew (Drew) Pulvermacher is Chief Probability Officer of decision science firm Nighthawk Intelligence. NHI works to transfer focus from descriptive data analytics to predictive analytics – improving insight and driving risk-informed decision making throughout the organization.

With over a decade of experience in analytics with companies such as Amazon, Best Buy, Merrill Lynch, and CUNA Mutual Group, Drew is focused on improving enterprise value through the use of Operation Research methodologies for enhancing productivity, efficiency, and profitability. With specific expertise in probability management, portfolio theory, and continuous improvement, Drew advances complex business processes and delivers innovative business development strategies for Fortune 20 corporations as well as small, community based businesses.

Drew serves communities in Pucallpa and Lima, Peru with Food for the Hungry, is a facilitator for University of Wisconsin’s LeaderShape program and volunteers in kindergarten classrooms sharing the joys of economic literacy with Junior Achievement.

Drew received his BBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire, MBA in Operations and Technology Management from the Wisconsin School of Business, and is currently enrolled in Northwestern’s MS Predictive Analytics program.

  Venkat Raman

Managing Principal
VR Advisors LLC

Venkat Raman is the managing principal of VR Advisors LLC, a boutique finance advisory services firm that creates value for clients by using contemporary finance and advanced risk analysis to solve business issues. Venkat has over 25 years of global experience in Strategy and Corporate Finance across public & private companies. Venkat started his career with Coopers & Lybrand as an auditor and moved on to management consulting around strategy and operations for the FMCG and manufacturing sectors. As VP Finance of ACE Group, he led finance, treasury, M&A as well as large-scale finance transformation projects for the EMEA region. Venkat's entrepreneurial ventures include experiences as a CFO of Foundation – a global ERP services & systems integrator, CEO of ITernal Solution – a services/software company, CEO of Dotflex Inc. – a software company and Interim CEO & board member of One Integrative Health – an alternative healthcare company. Venkat has an MBA from Indiana University, a qualified CPA, a qualified CPIM and is a Chartered Accountant from India.

  Adam Sharpe

Project Manager
CH2M Hill

Adam Sharpe is a project manager based in CH2M HILL’s Raleigh office and focuses on long-range planning, asset management, advanced data analytics, probabilistic modeling, risk analysis and decision support. He has a BS in Biology from SUNY Cortland, an MS in Natural Resource Management from NC State University, and a Professional Certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford. His range of experience with the Palisade Suite includes decision support for a 3,000-acre international logistics center, 50-year integrated water supply planning, watershed and riverine analysis, and asset management models for long-term renewal and replacement of plant equipment and structures.

  JD Solomon

Professional Engineer
CH2M Hill

JD Solomon, PE, is based in CH2M HILL’s Raleigh office and serves as the eastern US leader for the firm’s strategic consulting practice. He has a BS in Civil Engineering from NC State University, an MBA from the University of South Carolina, and a Professional Certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford. He is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers, the American Planning Association, the American Society of Quality (ASQ), and the Society of Maintenance and Reliability Professionals.

  Gustavo Vinueza

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Gustavo Vinueza is a Systems Engineer from University in Cuenca, Ecuador. He also earned an MBA from Torcuato Di Tella University in Argentina and a Ms. In Finance from Adolfo Ibáñez University in Chile. His main topics of interest include financial and operational modeling, including scientific and academic research into business practice as well as data mining relative matters. He has 16 years of experience and he’s been a consultant for companies in several industries: finance & banking, telecommunications, insurance and IT related services.

His experience includes managing Project portfolios both operational and IT related, cost reduction programs, public purchases bidding, operational controls, capacity analysis and audit processes and software development projects, besides technological infrastructure implementation. He has also earned diplomas in Project Management, Usability, Business Process Management and Business Analytics.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Chicago
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

Welcome and Palisade Overview

Steve Hunt
PALISADE CORPORATION

We will briefly review goals of this year’s conference and ways you can benefit from the event before giving some context and background about Palisade as a company. We will also explain the added insights that tools like @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite bring to risk and decision analysis. More in-depth exploration of @RISK and DecisionTools Suite will be covered in later sessions.

Introduction to @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite: Using Monte Carlo Simulation under Uncertainty

Gustavo Vinueza
PALISADE CORPORATION

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications for an entry-level introduction to @RISK and the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, to give you an excellent briefing on how to use and get the most from these tools.

The session begins with a tutorial on @RISK, walking you through a trial risk analysis using various example models. Key features of @RISK will be highlighted. You will experience the intuitive interface of @RISK as you define distributions, correlations, and other model components. During simulation, you will be able to see all charts, thumbnails, and reports update in real time, and can view your results with a variety of graphing and reporting options. We’ll also point out useful tricks to make risk modeling even easier.

The second half of the session will cover the DecisionTools Suite, an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. You will learn how the products of the Suite — @RISK, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, PrecisionTree, TopRank, StatTools, and NeuralTools — work together to solve practical problems in the real world. We’ll demonstrate how these tools integrate completely with your Excel program, how to browse, define and analyze your data, and we’ll reveal key tips for using the products together.

Quantifying Your Supply Chain

Chris Bohn
Aon Risk Solutions

» Download the presentation

Supply chain risk issues are nothing new and exist in both boom and bust economies. Weather, customer demand shortfalls, competitive pressures, IT disruptions, and interruption events involving key suppliers are just some of the risks that have significantly impacted supply chain management effectiveness and/or eroded shareholder value in the last 24 months. In addition, supply chains increasingly encompass distant locations, some in less-than-politically stable regions, which introduces new risks.

As companies across the globe continue to seek new markets and opportunities, corporate leadership needs to pursue more sophisticated approaches to supply chain risk management to ensure that critical assets and shareholder value are protected.

Using assessment techniques, learn how some companies are viewing their supply chains and evaluating mitigation options. Through risk quantification, one can gain a deeper understanding of specific supply chain risks, including:
  •  lost or damaged assets
  •  lost revenues and reduced market share
  •  mobilization costs
  •  single and sole source suppliers evaluation
  •  geography and political risk aspects
  •  current manufacturing and distribution
  •  existing mitigation and transfer strategies

Risk Analysis in Working Capital Management

Venkat Raman
VR Advisors, LLC

One of the important drivers for sustainable growth and profits is effective working capital management. A disciplined operational emphasis on cash is vital to move the organization forward. The challenge though is to understand the right levers, their materiality and the optimal pecking order to unlock value. Thus, a superior execution strategy that is fact based and data driven with sophisticated analytics is vital to mitigate the high degree of uncertainty and risk inherent in this process. The presentation will focus on risk analysis through stochastic modelling techniques in working capital management to manage these risks, make smart decisions and unlock significant value.

Exploring Custom Solutions using Palisade Software: Examples from Finance, Manufacturing, Project Management, and More

Gustavo Vinueza
PALISADE CORPORATION

Palisade Custom Development has written dozens of different types of specialized applications using the functionality of @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, and other DecisionTools products. These applications run the gamut of industry sectors and are specifically designed to accomplish just what the client needs. In this way, Palisade custom-designed applications simplify the rollout of powerful decision-making analytics within organizations by reducing learning curves and removing any potentially confusing options for users. Interfaces, model logic, and reports can all be tailored to the client’s exact specifications, driven by powerful Palisade analytics “under the hood.”

Most Palisade custom solutions run directly in Excel, using VBA and the Excel Developer Kit (or XDK) feature of the DecisionTools Suite programs. Some are built using the @RISK Developer Kit (RDK), a programming toolkit that runs outside the Excel platform and can be used on a web server.

This session will highlight a number of interesting examples of different types of custom applications we’ve done. They include cost estimation, risk registers, asset management, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, and more.

Forecasting Future Infrastructure Needs: Dealing with Uncertainty and Risk

JD Solomon, PE and Adam Sharpe
CH2M HILL

Utilities continue to be under economic pressures related to the uncertainty and risk associated with the long range planning and renewal and replacement of their infrastructure. Most of the common approaches to addressing this issue rely on deterministic approaches with finite, best approximation inputs. Unfortunately, these deterministic approaches yield results that greatly overestimate, or in many cases greatly underestimate, uncertainty and risk. They have limited practical use and leave much value on the table.

Probabilistic approaches provide a meaningful methodology for addressing uncertainty and risk. These approaches are most common in some industries where risk and rewards have been much higher than in the traditional water and wastewater utility sector. However with aging infrastructure and funding gaps that continue to widen, probabilistic forecasting is now extremely relevant and important to the water and wastewater industry.

This presentation will address the key differences between traditional deterministic approaches and probabilistic approaches through four (4) case examples. Two of the case examples, one from the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) and one from Gwinnett County, GA, Division of Water Resources (DWR), will highlight the use of probabilistic forecasting to address uncertainty when developing 20-year renewal and replacement programs. Another case example from Marion County, SC, will highlight how probabilistic approaches can be used to make decisions related the development and long-term maintenance needs of a 3,000-acre logistics center. The last case will touch upon how the Towns of Cary, Apex, Morrisville, and the Research Triangle Park, NC, used probabilistic forecasts to develop a 50-year water supply program and its related infrastructure.

Retail Price Optimization Using Palisade DecisionTools Suite

Andrew (Drew) Pulvermacher
NightHawk Intelligence

» Download the presentation

Retail pricing methodologies are rapidly influencing customer behavior and loyalty. Retailers of all sizes who are dynamically influencing buying behavior are embracing the value of demand-based pricing models. While most retailers are positioning themselves from price “matchers” to price “setters”, the Office of Marketing now demands price optimization as a core discipline to drive revenue and margin.

This presentation will cover cutting-edge developments in pricing models – use of market data, competitive prices, and weather; as well as organizational and process best practices that drive them.

It's Time: Knowing How and When to Step Up Your Decision Making

Randy Heffernan
PALISADE CORPORATION

Building off a recent feature story in the Harvard Business Review called “Deciding How to Decide,” we’ll examine common bad habits decision-makers often exhibit. We’ll walk through a checklist of things to watch out for that can indicate you actually know less than you think, and when you should be considering a probabilistic approach.




Embassy Suites Chicago Downtown

The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful Embassy Suites Downtown, located at 600 North State Street, Chicago, IL 60654.
Tel 312-943-3800. For more information, see the hotel website.

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