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      » Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Sydney Risk Conference

 

Palisade Overview and the Power of Probability

Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

Palisade today stands at the forefront of risk and decision software analytics. With offices around the globe and an exciting new release, more professionals are making decisions today with Palisade software than ever before.

Palisade vice president Randy Heffernan will give an update on where Palisade stands in the field of risk analysis. You’ll see that you’re in good company as he reviews recent noteworthy partnerships with leading global corporations in fields such as banking, energy, and manufacturing.

Then, he'll review new features in the 6.0 releases of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite. Get ready for a demonstration of some of the remarkable new features in version 6.0 that make risk modelling both easier and more accessible across platforms. Version 6.0 is the risk modelling solution that anyone can use.

 

Considering Risk Appetite using Quantitative
Risk Analysis

Andrew Kight
Aon Global Risk Consulting

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A key component to any risk financing decision is risk appetite. Irrespective of whether the reward outweighs the risk, an organisation must determine whether they have the appetite to accept the risk.  However, the process often relies on feel and lacks quantitative supports in relation to the magnitude and likelihood of the risk in consideration. 

This presentation will provide examples on how quantitative risk analysis is being used by organisations to better understand their insurable risk and its volatility, and demonstrate how this feeds into risk appetite considerations on a probabilistic basis rather than a deterministic basis.

The session will demonstrate how @RISK can provide clarity and visibility in decisions around insurable risk financing strategy.

 

 

A Case to Reforecast Contingency Throughout the Implementation Stage of a Project

Greg Wruck
GNT Project Solutions

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There is a large amount of theory and practice in the Project Industry associated with the management of risk and contingency. Organisations such as the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International (AACEi), the Project Management Institute (PMI) and countless other books, presentations and research papers have produced a seemingly endless stream of literature on this topic.

Much of the evolution of project processes has focussed on using risk-based methods to calculate the amount of contingency required prior to commencing a project. Prior to project approval, stakeholders will often require sophisticated analysis of project costs using stochastical / Monte Carlo techniques. However once a project is approved, contingency is managed using empirical, or “rule of thumb” methods, and the focus moves to a single Forecast Final Cost and Completion Date.

This paper discusses some of the issues associated with this approach, and proposes a manageable method whereby the contingency model can be maintained and updated in line with changes to the risk profile throughout the Implementation Stage of a Project.

 

Developments in Project Cost and
Schedule Modelling

Dr Stephen Grey
Broadleaf Capital International Pty Ltd

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The basic principles of project cost and schedule modelling using Monte Carlo simulation have been well established for some time.  This presentation will explain recent developments in the use of these techniques.  Specific topics to be covered include:

  • The relationship between qualitative risk assessment and modelling
  • Model structures that are aligned with reality
  • Estimating distribution parameters, technical and human factors
  • Modelling successive stages of a project’s development
  • Integrating cost and schedule analyses
  • Interpreting and understanding outputs

 

Exploring the Public’s Exposure to Drinking and Bathing Water Microbes through the Construction
of @RISK Meta-Models

Dr David Roser
University of New South Wales

Assessing the risks to the public posed by deliberate and accidental ingestion of drinking, recycled and environmental water increasingly employs quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), a type of Environmental Risk Assessment.

When applying QMRA, @RISK is a convenient tool for estimating levels of exposure to water pathogens (illness causing viruses bacteria and protozoa), illness and infection risks, and the emerging consequence integrating measurement the DALY or Disability Adjusted Life Year.

However, where many scenarios need to be considered, constructing a series of once off @RISK models the diversity of input and output assumptions increases. Comparing and keeping track of modelling results also becomes very time consuming. As importantly documenting model results for client reports and regulators becomes challenging. Overall risk simulation and assessment rapidly becomes logistically unmanageable due to combinatorial explosion

Fortunately QMRA models frequently take the following  linear “meta-model” format: Hazard source > barriers (multiple) >  dose > dose response > infection/illness. This has allowed us to 'industrialise' the risk estimation process using @RISK. Among other benefits taking a 'meta-process' modelling approach facilitated documentation of each model, rapid variation in all input assumptions and reuse of many module/algorithms. New simulations could be constructed in minutes so that many scenario permutations could be rapidly run and compared by in effect a sensitivity analysis. 

This presentation will explain using QMRA examples the various ways we integrated @RISK with other inbuilt Excel features and functions to achieve 'meta-modelling'.

 

Extreme Uncertainty - Using Simulation to Improve the Australian Superannuation System

Dr Patrick McConnell
Risk Trading Technology

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As the first baby boomers prepare to leave the workforce in the next few years it has become obvious that their aspirations for a comfortable retirement will, in many cases, not be met!

Pensions systems in the USA, UK and Australia are bracing for serious social problems caused by inflated expectations, driven by failure to manage market uncertainty.

Using the Australian Superannuation system as a case study, this presentation highlights the overly simplistic assumptions in current pension modelling and points out the benefits of simulation. How to encourage people to save more for retirement is an important issue in Behavioural Finance. The presentation suggests how simulation may be used to communicate risks and opportunities in pension planning.

 

 

Financial Modelling & Valuation of Aged Care Facilities using Stochastic Techniques

Simon Militano
Lend Lease

With the growing need of Aging Australians, recent reports, media, productivity commission findings and research into the Aged Care sector, modelling the returns of the sector has become paramount for operators and developers. Developers need to combine their construction expertise to build facilities with modelling expertise around the complexity of Australia’s aging residents whose needs change once they enter a facility. This presentation presents how this has been dealt with in Lend Lease over a number of new developments, using Palisade software with stochastic modelling techniques and risk analysis combined with development fundamentals.

 

 

The Importance of Distribution Fitting to Illiquid Securities for Risk Modelling

Darren O'Connell
FleetPartners

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This article highlights the importance of going beyond standard textbook theory and assuming for risk modelling purposes that an asset's return should follow the Normal distribution simply because it is the most well-known and best parameterised of all the known probability distribution functions. We examine ways of modelling the stochastic price process of a series of illiquid securities under uncertainty using probabilistic and Monte Carlo techniques to manage price risk within a Value-at-Risk framework. We find that by selecting a probability distribution function that is closer to the real but unknown distribution of the underlying portfolio, the number and independence of violations that occur are much better aligned to the theoretical expectation than would be achieved by simply relying of the Normal distribution to model price risk. This analysis was developed using Microsoft Excel and Palisade's DecisionTools Suite, and thus can be easily reproduced cost effectively for any interested market participant and expanded to portfolios of liquid and illiquid securities. By going beyond textbook theory and applying some easy to use tools, the resulting VaR models will be more accurate, sensitive to changes in external volatility, better able to anticipate variations in risk profile, and be more acceptable under the market risk stream of the Basel framework resulting in capital charge relief.

 

Modelling the Fate of Organic Contaminants through Sewage Treatment Plants and the Environment: Sensitivity Analysis with @RISK to Inform Management Strategies to Minimise Risks

Dr Daryl Stevens
Atura Consulting

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Recycling of water from sewage treatment plants has increased considerably over the last decade as many parts of Australia experienced below average rainfall resulting in reduced runoff to fresh water supplies (via surface and ground water) across the country. To maintain water supplies to many major cities, water authorities have adopted two strategies; (i) use water more efficiently and (ii) diversify the source of water. Sewage effluent has been one of the sources where water has been recycled for a range of uses. The risks posed by microbial and chemical hazards in recycled water are predominantly managed through treatment or by onsite restrictions on how the water is used. Water authorities have the best control over the treatment process and so this process is most often used to manage the risk posed by hazards in recycled water. This project modelled certain physical properties of organic chemical hazards found in sewage water and their behaviour (partitioning) in the environment when irrigating with recycled water. By capturing the variability of the treatment system and partitioning in the environment with probability distribution functions, a sensitivity analysis was used to: 1) identify if risks posed by organic chemicals were managed; 2) identify critical control points in the treatment process and the environment where the recycled water was used. The critical control points identified treatment components that could be optimised to remove organic chemicals or onsite restrictions that may be required to manage risk appropriately.

 

Optimising Climate Change Adaptation Investment

Robert Kinghorn
Parsons Brinckerhoff

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Adaptation is one of the three pillars of the Australian Government‘s climate change strategy. However, a key feature of climate change is the uncertainty that accompanies it.  In particular, the timing, severity and frequency of future weather and climate events are not known with any degree of precision at this stage.  Even where an ostensibly effective adaptation measure is identified, such as building a levee bank to protect coastal areas from flooding, there is little certainty as to when it should be built, or how high.

This presentation details a pioneering case study undertaken for the Department of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency to evaluate the economic costs and benefits of implementing climate change adaptation measures at Narrabeen Lagoon in northern Sydney, an area already prone to coastal flooding.

Probabilistic modelling using @RISK was employed to handle the uncertainty in respect to climate change and adaptation. Using a discounted cost-benefit analysis framework, both damage costs and indirect losses due to flooding events were evaluated against the costs of providing infrastructure to protect against these events. The presentation discusses how rather than using averages or worst case scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation was used to simulate many combinations of future weather events under different climate change scenarios, and generate a probabilistic distribution of costs and benefits. RISKOptimizer was then employed to determine the optimal suite of adaptation measures (in terms of scope and timing) which delivered the highest economic net present value to society.

 

 

Optimising Insurance Policy Decisions for the Power Industry using Palisade Software

Evelyn Andrea Londoño Taborda
JLT Re Colombia/EPM Business Group

William Angel Robledo
Maxseguros/EPM Business Group

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Insurance policies are important mechanisms for transferring risk through which the insurer agrees to indemnify the insured for an economic loss arising from an occurrence of a loss covered, in exchange for payment of a premium.

The randomness of the insured risks and the existence of a number of conditions defined in the insurance contract, such as deductible, depreciation, directly affect the compensations, encourage the development of stochastic models to optimise the transfer of risk through insurance policies.

Under these premises, a methodology is presented to develop a decision-making model that allows consideration of variations in premiums and others conditions for a power company insurance policy, whose main insured assets are power transformers.

The model is based on Monte Carlo Simulation (using @RISK) for the creation of possible failure scenarios for a population of power transformers. Furthermore RISKOptimizer is used to minimise the cost of risk, expressed as the sum between the insurance premium paid and the risk retained through deductibles and depreciations in the policy.

This methodology allowed the optimisation of insurance policy conditions in coverage and premiums paid at Grupo Empresarial EPM and represented a significant reduction in costs and efficient risk transfer. Additionally, this project promoted an increased interest in quantitative analysis of risk inside the business group.

 

 

Risk-based Design of Load-Bearing Columns Exposed to Fire using Monte Carlo Analysis

Carl Johansson
Philip Chun Consultancy

Load-bearing elements of a structure, e.g. a column, are required to have sufficient strength to withstand the applied load. In structural engineering, the load value is determined by the weight of the structure itself (dead load), contents (live load) and loads imposed from certain extreme events. The extreme events commonly considered are wind, earthquake and snow. The term 'extreme' is used as these events are associated with a low probability but the imposed load could potentially lead to structural collapse (with high consequences). The applied load during an extreme event is a combination of dead load, live load, and the load imposed by the event itself. The Building Code of Australia provides acceptable frequencies of these extreme events imposing a load that exceeds the design load, i.e. implicitly stating an acceptable frequency of structural collapse.

Another extreme event is fire. Fire has the same characteristics as the above extreme events: it is infrequent and has the potential to cause structural collapse. However, no building code (to the extent of the author's knowledge) provides acceptable frequencies of structural collapse from fires. This limits the available engineering approaches and the current state of the art approach incorporates deterministic methods which were derived in the 1970-80's. For existing structures, where information on as-built conditions may be limited and load paths and structural resistance cannot be readily determined, deterministic methods are generally not applicable.

In this paper the author presents a method which incorporates a probabilistic method of determining the expected frequency of structural failure for loadbearing columns. This is presented in the form of a case study for structural fire design of a retail tenancy within a shopping mall. The methodology utilises @RISK for Monte Carlo analysis to simulate the randomness of fire. By assigning probability distributions to variables (such as fire location and damage area) characteristic to the severity of fires, the probability of a fire affecting columns could be quantified in the form of a probability mass function. In the specific case study, it could be shown that the failure probability is less than acceptable individual fatality risk and societal risk.

 

She’ll be Right, Mate: The Impact of Optimism
Bias and the Fight/Flight Response on our Perception of Risk

Jürgen Oschadleus
Act Knowledge Pty Ltd

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Poor communication and inadequate risk management are frequently cited as the leading causes of project failure. At the heart of this we find a breakdown in our thinking and decision-making process, caused by two powerful phenomena that shape our behaviour. On the one hand we have a very necessary built-in optimism bias which gives us hope for the future and enables us to see the potential and opportunity even in the direst of circumstances. On the other we have a deeply ingrained self-protection mechanism which spots threats and prepares us for fight or flight. These two opposing forces shape our perception of risk and define our decision-making.

This engaging presentation highlights the neuroscience behind mental blind spots and the development of thought-patterns. It addresses both the benefits and the risks inherent in intuitive decision-making, challenges our assumptions about what confidence entails, and explains where rational decision-making processes and quantitative analysis tools such as @RISK fit into the framework.

 

 

A Stochastic Model for Estimating the Budget & Schedule of a Project using @RISK

Evelyn Andrea Londoño Taborda
JLT Re Colombia/EPM Business Group

William Angel Robledo
Maxseguros/EPM Business Group

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In the early planning and evaluation stages of a project, it is fundamental to provide anaccurate determination of the budget in order to meet the defined objectives. The cost assessment is hampered by uncertainty and risk conditions, which are implicit in the unit volume and price estimations. Commonly, the attempted solution for this problem is through the affectation of the budget, effectively adding an additional percentage to costs to account for the unforeseen.This method is not an appropriate way to model accurately the randomness of the costs for a project.
A better solution for estimating the budget can be found via a stochastic model using @RISK. Based on uncertainty and risk profiles for quantities and prices, an accurate probability distribution function can be calculated for a budget.

This stochastic approach provides a number of advantages over the commonly used method, including:

  • Utilises expert advice and judgment as well as historical information of statisticsfor the relevant variables.
  • Support decisions quantifiable and with greater certainty
  • Successfully quantifies risk needed for the formulation of schemes of recruitment, controls design, negotiation of policies and determining the technical and economic feasibility of the project, among others.
  • Optimise financing obtained in the capital market.

The proposed methodology can be extended to estimate execution schedule, considering the randomness in the duration of activities and obtaining probability distribution functions for deadlines.

 

Thinking About Unthinkable Risks

Jay Horton
Strategis Partners

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We live in an era Joshua Cooper Ramo calls the ‘Age of Unthinkable’. It is defined by problems whose complexity, unpredictability and interconnectedness increasingly defy our efforts at control.

This has implications for how we analyse risk. When I talk to my clients about strategic risks, I ask them: ‘What keeps you awake at night?’ The answers are usually along the following lines: ‘risks that I do not know about’; or ‘risks we haven’t modelled’.

In this world of faster, broader and more uncertain change, quantitative risk analysis loses its primacy.

My presentation will explore case studies that demonstrate the need to merge narrative analysis with computational analysis in order to gain a richer picture of the risks to manage.

It will show how risk analysts can employ narrative tools to interpret the real world: for example using imagined scenarios, subjectivity in risk assessment, and qualitative surveys.

 

 

Turning Risk into Opportunity using a Collaborative Multimedia Approach - The Resiliance of Australian and New Zealand Hospital Facilities to Cope with Extreme Weather Events

Dr Martin Loosemore
University of New South Wales

Michael Brink
TBH Capital Advisers

Vivien Chow
University of New South Wales

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AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 (Risk management - Principles and guidelines) requires organisations to manage opportunities as well as risks. However, there is little practical guidance on how to do this effectively. This presentation will help companies address this challenge in a simple and practical way.

In this session, Martin Loosemore and Michael Brink will demonstrate an innovative approach to risk and opportunity management which uses cutting-edge multimedia technology to collaboratively engage stakeholders in reaching creative solutions.

Multimedia offers many advantages to decision-makers in managing both risks and opportunities. Multimedia offers a powerful way to engage, enthuse and stimulate those involved in the risk and opportunity management process. It enables organisations to build a positive risk management culture by effectively capturing and harnessing the talents and knowledge of its employees and other stakeholders.

The approach used in the workshop has been used successfully across a wide range of industries. It was the basis of the risk management system used to manage the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games facilities and is being used by a wide range of major public and private sector organisations in the insurance, finance, resources, engineering and construction sectors to successfully manage a diverse range of strategic, tactical and operational risks.

Specifically, the session will help delegates:

  • Identify clear decision objectives.
  • Identify risks and opportunities to those objectives
  • Assess and prioritise those risks and opportunities
  • Develop action plans and identify appropriate contingencies to mitigate those risks and maximise those opportunities.
  • Develop implementation strategies and information to enable negotiations with business partners or clients about optimum allocations of risk.

 

   
 

Customised Software Applications
using @RISK & VBA

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite software ship with full-featured development environments that allow you to create custom applications using Palisade technology directly in Excel (Excel Developer Kits or XDKs). You can customise the application interface to include only what the users need, hiding unused @RISK functionality and preventing user access to the underlying model logic. You can also automate processes like reporting, generating only the charts and data you want. The result is a perfectly tailored application ready to roll out to your workgroup. And because the application is in Excel, the training required for users is minimal.

Palisade Custom Development has written applications for cost estimation, asset management, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, and more – all utilising @RISK technology in Excel. In this presentation, we will cover as many examples of custom applications as time allows.

 

 

Decision Modelling with PrecisionTree

Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

PrecisionTree is a powerful visual and analytical tool for mapping out complex, sequential decisions using decision trees directly in Excel. Using nodes, branches, and probabilities, you can represent and organise decisions ranging from oil prospecting to site development to options analysis. PrecisionTree can also be combined with @RISK to incorporate uncertainty and risk in tree models. This presentation combines an introduction to the PrecisionTree interface with demonstrations of how PrecisionTree can be used to analyse various problems in decision analysis.

 

 

Finding Optimal Solutions with Evolver and RISKOptimizer 6.0

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

RISKOptimizer 6.0 and Evolver 6.0 use powerful algorithms to perform optimization in Microsoft Excel. RISKOptimizer – an advanced analytical tool that comes with @RISK Industrial – builds on traditional optimisation by adding Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertain (stochastic), uncontrollable factors in your optimisation problem. RISKOptimizer and Evolver have long used genetic algorithms to arrive at solutions that are impossible to find using most traditional methods. New version 6.0 introduces new optimisation methods that can find optimal solutions even faster than genetic algorithms.

This session introduces you to these powerful tools, showing you how to set up a model, define constraints within the model, and ultimately arrive at the optimal outcome. These steps will be illustrated by means of a detailed retirement portfolio optimisation example.

 

 

Introduction to @RISK

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

This introduction to @RISK will walk you through a risk analysis using various example models. Key features of @RISK will be highlighted, and new interface enhancements in version 6.0 will be pointed out along the way. You will experience the intuitive interface of @RISK as you define distributions, correlations, and other model components. During simulation you will be able to see all charts, thumbnails, and reports update in real time. View results with a variety of graphing and reporting options. There’s so much to see, we’ll cover as much as time permits. Please note this session is not an overview of the new features in version 6.0. That is covered in "What’s New in DecisionTools Suite 6.0 and @RISK 6.0: Open Discussion."

 

 

Introduction to The DecisionTools Suite

Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

This session will show you how to use the elements of the DecisionTools Suite as a comprehensive risk analysis, decision-making, and statistical analysis toolkit. Each of the products in the Suite — @RISK, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, PrecisionTree, TopRank, StatTools, and NeuralTools — will be presented as time allows, showing how they can be used to solve practical problems in the real world. Pick up hints and tips for using the products together. We’ll also point out interface improvements along the way that can save time and enhance ease-of-use. Please note this session is not an overview of the new features in version 6.0. That is covered in New Features of DecisionTools Suite 6.0 and @RISK 6.0.

 

 

Introduction to Project Risk Management using @RISK 6.0

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

The aim of this seminar is to provide a basic understanding of how the new @RISK 6.0 can help you manage uncertainty in your Microsoft Project schedules. Using Monte Carlo simulation, you will learn how to account for schedule and costs risks in a quick and comprehensive way. At last, here is a way to answer the question “What is the probability that my project will come in on time and within budget?” And with new version 6.0, risk modelling of your Project schedules is much more flexible and powerful than ever before.

We will show you how to set up and run simulations, and how to interpret the results. You will learn how to use @RISK step-by-step, and become familiar with basic concepts and terminology. We’ll demonstration powerful graphing and reporting that pinpoints where your risks lie and what their impact may be.

You will see how using @RISK for your projects enables you to:

  • Calculate the probability of success
  • Graph the margin of error around the most likely outcome
  • Quantify and prioritise the risk drivers
  • Quantify the amount ‘@RISK’

What’s New in DecisionTools Suite 6.0 and @RISK 6.0: Open Discussion

Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

The upcoming 6.0 release of the DecisionTools Suite and @RISK marks an exciting advancement in quantitative risk and decision modelling. Powerful new analytical tools and robust ease of use features will appeal to both new users and seasoned experts alike.

In this session, we will present a brief overview of major new features in version 6.0, such as time-series simulation modelling, new distribution fitting features, and integration with Microsoft Project. The floor will be open to questions and input on which features or applications you’d like to see most. Feel free to join in the discussion!

Please note that time-series modelling and project management are also covered in detail in their own sessions, and that distribution fitting features will also be touched upon in the session on Selecting the Right Distribution.

 

 

Predictive and Data Analysis with NeuralTools and StatTools

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

In this session we will learn how to use Palisade’s two data analysis tools: StatTools and NeuralTools.

StatTools is a Microsoft Excel statistics add-in. This session will cover how to perform the most common statistical tests, and will include topics such as: Statistical Inference, Forecasting, Data Management, Summary Analyses, and Regression Analysis.

NeuralTools imitates brain functions in order to “learn” the structure of your data. Once NeuralTools understands the data, it can take new inputs and make intelligent predictions. The new predictions are based on the patterns in known data, and offer uncanny accuracy. NeuralTools can automatically update predictions when input data changes, and it can even be combined with Palisade’s Evolver or Excel’s Solver to optimise tough decisions and achieve desired goals.

We will demonstrate, using easy-to-understand examples, applications of NeuralTools predictions.

 

 

Selecting the Right Distribution in @RISK 6.0

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. The use of distributions to treat a variety of risk modelling situations is discussed, and some new distributions and features in v6.0 are shown.

 

 

Time Series Analysis in @RISK 6.0

Erik Westwig
Palisade Corporation

In statistics, economics and mathematical finance, a time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times spaced at uniform time intervals. Examples of time series are weekly currency exchange rates, the daily closing value of the NASDAQ Composite index or monthly crude oil prices. In traditional time series analysis, the past performance of the process is used as the basis for a single projected new path in the future.

In reality, of course, there are an infinite number of possible future paths in any time series process. To address this, @RISK 6.0 now includes a time series analysis tool. This new functionality will let you simulate different possible future paths your time series process could take. You can construct these stochastic time series models directly or use historical data to fit time series functions to your data. You can then simulate many different possible future time series events quickly and easily, thus more accurately representing the uncertain future.

 

   
 

EXPERT SESSIONS
by appointment with Palisade experts
and consultants

New this year, we are offering one-on-one consulting sessions with Palisade technical experts and consultants throughout the Palisade Risk Conference. Sign up for a 45-minute slot to meet with us and discuss your own risk or decision modelling challenges. Feel free to bring your laptop and your models. All sessions are confidential and there is no additional charge. All consultations will be held in separate room, though several one-on-one meetings may be going on at once.

Slots are available on a first come, first serve basis. To sign up, please contact your Palisade sales representative or email sales@palisade.com.au.

 

   
 

Michael Brink
Founding Principal
TBH Capital Advisers

Michael is a civil engineering graduate with an MBA from the AGSM and has worked in Banking and Finance in the Infrastructure, Project and Structured Finance areas for 20 years and as a founding principal at TBH Capital Advisers for the past 2 years.

TBH Capital Advisers is a boutique infrastructure and project finance advisory firm active in the PPP sector. It is part of the TBH Group—a national and international consultancy which has operated as a specialist programming and scheduling consultant for over 45 years. One of Michael’s key interests at TBH Capital Advisers is in project risk modelling from a capital cost as well as a schedule risk perspective. While at TBH Capital Advisers, Michael has presented a number of PPP Risk Modelling workshops that use @RISK for Excel as part of the Infrastructure Australia methodology for calculating Public Sector Comparators.

Prior to establishing TBH Capital Advisers, Michael has worked at a number of Australian investment banking and financial services organisations including Macquarie Group and the Australian Industry Development Corporation, and recently worked as the Treasurer of a major Australian non-bank lending group. Michael has also consulted to the Asian Development Bank and other multinational groups as a financial modelling specialist. In all of these roles Michael has had a strong involvement in quantitative financial modelling with a particular emphasis on infrastructure and project finance.

Vivien Chow
Senior Research Assistant
University of New South Wales

Vivien Chow is a Senior Research Assistant currently working on an ARC Linkage Project titled ‘Assessing the adaptive capacity of hospital facilities to cope with climate change-related extreme weather events: a risk management approach’. Focussing on four case studies of major hospitals across Australia and New Zealand, the research is revealing a range of strategies that could improve the resilience of our health facilities against natural disasters caused by extreme weather events such as flash flooding, storm surges and heatwaves. Vivien is interested in investigating the social impacts of the built environment and how consultation and collaboration with user groups can be used to enhance project outcomes. Vivien has tutored and guest-lectured in design, project management and sustainable development.

Dr Stephen Grey
Associate Director
Broadleaf Capital International Pty Ltd

Stephen Grey is an Associate Director with Broadleaf Capital International Pty Ltd. He has been at the forefront of the use of risk modelling techniques for major projects and related analysis since tools such as @RISK first became available, starting with @RISK for Lotus 123. His work with Broadleaf ranges from relatively small high risk projects in the public sector through to very large resources and infrastructure capital investments.

Stephen wrote one of the first books to describe the use of @RISK for project analysis and is co-author of a second book, see http://www.broadleaf.com.au/publications. With his colleagues in Broadleaf, he has refined and developed techniques for integrating risk modelling into risk management and decision making. This includes not only extending the range of technical modelling methods they use but also significant improvements in the development of model structures, techniques for deriving model parameters from stakeholders and enhancing the interpretation of model outputs to assist decision making.

Randy Heffernan
Vice President
Palisade Corporation

Randy Heffernan started with Palisade in 1997, and helped the company expand with its first overseas office in Plymouth, England, in 1998. Further geographic expansions included London in 2002 and Sydney, Australia in 2005. He has held a variety of roles in sales, marketing, and management, and currently oversees much of the corporate operations. Randy works closely with the sales staff to understand client needs and liaise with software development. Randy holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Management and Marketing, and an MBA, both from Cornell University.

Jay Horton
Founder and Managing Director
Strategis Partners

Jay is the Founder and Managing Director of Strategis Partners, an Asia-Pacific consultancy advising corporations and Governments on strategy and organisation. He advises clients in Australia, Hong Kong, and South East Asia.

Recent projects include long-term strategy in the agri-foods sector, pandemic scenario planning, the future of energy resources and climate change, and Hong Kong in the year 2025.

He commenced his career in management consulting with McKinsey & Company in 1985. In 1999 he entered the Partnership of PricewaterhouseCoopers for five years, after PwC acquired the management consultancy ORG which he founded in 1990.

Jay works with clients such as BHP-Billiton, NSW Government, Mass Transit Rail Corp of Hong Kong, and Wesfarmers Limited; helping leaders and their organisations foster innovation, and make better decisions in the face of risk and opportunity.

His qualifications include Master of Economics from Australian National University and a Bachelor of Engineering from James Cook University.

Carl Johansson
Fire Safety Engineer
Philip Chun Consultancy

Carl is currently working for Philip Chun Fire as a Fire Safety & Risk Management Consultant. He holds a BSc in Fire Protection Engineering and a MSc in Risk Management and Safety Engineering from Lund University, Sweden.

Carl specialises in risk-based fire safety design and has been involved in projects where traditional fire engineered solutions could not be applied. His knowledge of risk analysis has assisted in finding solutions and developing unique tools to solve otherwise difficult issues. His knowledge of Quantitative Risk Analysis has proven valuable in several projects.

Carl has been providing fire safety design and risk analyses for a wide range of building types and has been involved in projects such as State Theatre and Gowings Revival, Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank. Based on his experience and knowledge of fire risk analysis, he was consulted by the Australian Building Codes Board on appropriate risk levels in buildings.

Carl is also recognised for his contribution at several international fire safety and risk conferences on the topic of risk-based fire safety design.

Andrew Kight
Senior Consultant
Aon Global Risk Consulting

Andrew is currently a Senior Consultant in the Analytical & Captives team within Aon Global Risk Consulting. He has seven years of experience in the general insurance industry and his role involves quantitative loss modelling, risk retention assessments, reserve valuations and risk tolerance analysis predominantly to major corporate organisations in Australia.

Andrew’s main focus is on working with organisations that self insure a significant portion of their risk. This generally involves organisations that utilise a risk retention vehicle (i.e. a captive or managed fund) to finance these risks. Andrew assists these organisations with understanding the risk that they retain and also the amount that they should set aside to fund those risks.

Andrew has experience working with a broad range of clients across a full spectrum of sizes and industries, ranging from local government entities to national and global corporate companies in industries as varied as Healthcare, Finance, Retail and Energy/ Utilities.

Andrew also provides support internally, demonstrating to Aon’s broking teams and their clients the concepts of total cost of insurable risk, risk tolerance & appetite and quantitative loss modelling and how they assist in making informed decisions around insurance renewal options and identifying the most efficient level of self insurance.

Robert Kinghorn
Principal Economist
Parsons Brinckerhoff

Robert is a Principal Economist with Parsons Brinckerhoff, specialising in infrastructure project appraisal for State and Commonwealth Government clients, predominantly in the transport sector. During his career, he has undertaken economic/financial analysis and prepared business cases for numerous multimillion dollar infrastructure projects in both the UK and Australasia.

For many projects, Robert has used Monte Carlo simulation and @RISK to inform decision-makers on the probable range of costs and benefits and factors that would affect the project’s economic or financial viability. Recent applications include demand/revenue forecasting, cost estimation, and contingent risk analysis for road/public transport projects; capacity modelling of ports; and asset management for utility companies.

He was formerly with AECOM Australia, where as part of a multi-disciplinary team of economists, climate change analysts, environmental scientists, civil engineers and oceanographers, he developed a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis model using @RISK for the Narrabeen Lagoon Climate Change Adaptation study.

Dr Martin Loosemore
Construction Management Program
University of New South Wales

Martin Loosemore is Professor of Construction Management and Associate Dean Research at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. He is a Fellow of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Building and is a visiting Professor at University of Loughborough in the UK and The University of Hawaii.

In 2002, Martin was a consultant to the Australian Royal Commission into the Building Industry, advising on international workplace reform and productivity and has been called to provide evidence to a number of Federal Senate inquiries into the Building and Construction Industry. He was recently appointed by Minister Kim Carr to the first of the Australian Federal Government‘s Innovation Councils – representing the building, construction and engineering industry.

Martin works with a wide range of major private and public sector organisations and NGOs in Australia, Asia and the Middle East, to improve their risk management practices. He was also commissioned by the Beijing Olympic Organizing Committee (BOCOG) to develop the risk and opportunity management system used for the delivery of the 2008 Beijing Olympic games facilities.

Dr Patrick McConnell
Partner
Risk Trading Technology

Dr Patrick McConnell is a partner with Risk Trading Technology, a small consultancy specialising in Risk Management and Information Technology. In over 30 years in banking, insurance and commerce, Patrick has operated as a senior manager and consultant in investment banks and large corporations in the US, Europe and Australia. He is a published author and an experienced lecturer in risk management; he teaches courses at Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre, Sydney and at Trinity College, Dublin.

Simon Militano
Senior Asset Manager
Lend Lease

Simon Militano has fifteen years of experience at Lend Lease. He is currently a Senior Asset Manager in Retirement Living and Aged Care, where he is responsible in a team for management of $1billion in retirement living assets, including all project feasibilities, Business and Asset Plans, and valuations. He was responsible for the creation of an Asset Plan Cashflow Model across all these assets, including aged care integration of all disciplines and operations, and also led a recent $1 billion fund acquisition proposal for Lend Lease. Simon has specialised experience in valuation, demographics, strategy, commercial feasibilities, complex financial models, development, financial control, and systems and operations.

 

Darren O'Connell
Manager of Risk & Compliance
FleetPartners

Darren holds an Honours Degree in Finance and a Bachelor Degree in Economics & Finance, both from Curtin University of Technology. In addition, Darren holds Graduate Diplomas in Applied Finance & Investment and Applied Corporate Governance from, and is a member of FINSIA and CSA respectively.

Darren is a risk and governance professional who has an extensive background in financial markets and derivatives gained from a number of well-known Australian and UK financial institutions. His main area of interest focuses the use of derivatives to manage financial risk. Presently, Darren is the Manager of Risk & Compliance at FleetPartners, a pan-Tasman financial services company. His current project includes preparing the company for sale by instituting an end-to-end governance, risk management and compliance framework.

Jürgen Oschadleus
Educator, Speaker, and Presenter on Project Leadership
Act Knowledge Pty Ltd

Jürgen Oschadleus is an international speaker, educator and consultant on project leadership, influence and effective communication. He combines his background in history, education and technology projects with a fascination for sport and psychology, and uses this to challenge people’s thinking and help them create new mental connections, apply knowledge and achieve the outcomes they seek.

With nearly 20 years of education, strategic consulting and systems deployment projects in Africa, Europe and the Asia Pacific region, his communication and leadership seminars receive acclaim from participants on five continents. Jürgen also presents post-graduate project management classes at the University of New South Wales and the University of Sydney, and writes for various international publications. His first book, Heart of Influence, was released in 2004.

Jürgen is the founder and director of Act Knowledge, and the Asia/Pacific partner of the Valense network of organisational consultants. He holds a Master’s degree in History, an MBA in International Project Management and Organisational Development, and a Certificate IV in Workplace Training & Assessment. He is DiSC and SDI-accredited, an Advanced Toastmaster (Gold), an active member of the Project Management Institute's (PMI) Sydney Chapter, where he serves as Communications Director. Jürgen holds PMI’s Project Management Professional (PMP®) credential, and is also a Member of the Australian Institute of Project Management (AIPM).

Rishi Prabhakar
Trainer, Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking, and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, and survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.

William Angel Robledo
Head of Risk and Insurance strategy at EPM Business Group
Chief Executive Officer of Maxseguros

William Angel Robledo is a Civil Engineer with a master in Water Resource Planning and graduated from the Universidad Nacional de Colombia. William has 23 years of experience in consulting and designing of infrastructure projects with an emphasis on planning and decision-making in the power sector within several Latin American countries.

He was manager of hydropower research projects for ISAGEN SA, a government-owned power generation company in Colombia. Currently he is the Head of the Insurance and Risk Strategy at EPM (Empresas Publicas de Medellin), a government-owned utility company and one of the largest companies in Colombia. Additionally he is the CEO of Maxseguros, a captive of EPM Business Group.

He has advised insurance and reinsurance companies in the design of policies and adjustments of claims for loss profit. William has also participated in several research projects in the power sector, especially in the areas of planning and decision making and has assisted as a consultant and director on various undergraduate and master theses.

Dr David Roser
Program Leader, Environmental Microbiology and Pathogen Risk Assessment
University of New South Wales, Centre for Water and Waste Technology

Dr. Roser is a Senior Research Officer on the UNSW Node of the European Union’s ‘MicroRisk’ Project aimed at applying Quantitative Risk Assessment techniques to the catchment to tap based management of drinking water supplies. He currently manages recreational water quality Microbial Risk Assessment Projects (Lake Parramatta, Penrith Lakes), and has just completed a major inter state CRC for Water Quality and Treatment Project on Monitoring and Management of Pathogens in Environmental Waters (Project value $3.2 million). Other duties include general consulting with the Centre for Water and Waste Technology for HACCP application to recreational water quality management.

Dr. Roser earned his BSc with honors from UNSW in 1976, his PhD from La Trobe University in 1982, and a Master of Environmental Planning from Maquarie University in 1994. He has also served as Officer/Acting Director for Hawkesbury Nepean Catchment Management Trust, and as a Wintering Biologist, Antarctic Division, Hobart/Casey Station.

Dr Daryl Stevens
Atura Consulting

Dr Stevens has worked extensively (2005-2010) for the National Environmental Protection Council as Coordinator and Scientific Services for the Environmental Risk component of the Australian Guidelines for Water Recycling (Phase 1, 2B and 2C).  He helped draft the Rain Water Installation and Greywater Installation Handbooks for Green Plumbers and Standards Australia. Dr Stevens and his company (Atura Pty Ltd) consults extensively across Australia in establishing and operating recycled water schemes (Urban and Rural) that comply with the AGWR, and that will be low risk to agriculture and the environment.

Evelyn Andrea Londoño Taborda
JLT Re Colombia/EPM Business Group

Evelyn Andrea Londoño Taborda. Financial Engineer with emphasis on risk, graduated from the Universidad of Medellin. Evelyn has also studied technical analysis of financial markets, modelling for risk investment projects, practical risk management projects and basic programming.

During 2010 Evelyn worked as an intern in the Risk Department of Risky and Insurance Strategy at EPM (Empresas Públicas de Medellin), a government owned utility company and one of the largest companies in Colombia.

For the past two years, Evelyn has worked as technical analyst for JLT (Jardine Thompson & Lloyds) Re Colombia, a reinsurance brokerage. She has worked supporting projects both within EPM and Maxseguros, the Captive Insurance Company of EPM Group.

Gustavo Vinueza
Trainer, Consultant
Palisade
Corporation

Gustavo Vinueza is a Systems Engineer from University of Cuenca, Ecuador. He also earned an MBA from Torcuato Di Tella University in Argentina and a Ms. In Finance from Adolfo Ibáñez University in Chile. His main topics of interest include financial and operational modelling, including scientific and academic research into business practice as well as data mining relative matters. He has 16 years of experience and he’s been a consultant for companies in several industries: finance & banking, telecommunications, insurance and IT related services.

His experience includes managing Project portfolios both operational and IT related, cost reduction programs, public purchases bidding, operational controls, capacity analysis and audit processes and software development projects, besides technological infrastructure implementation. He has also earned diplomas in Project Management, Usability, Business Process Management and Business Analytics.

Erik Westwig
Software Engineer
Palisade Corporation

Erik Westwig received his BS in 1991 and MS in 1994 from the applied and engineering physics department at Cornell University. In 1998 he published the book Mathematical Physics with co-author Bruce Kusse, which was re-released in its second edition in 2006. Since 1995, Erik has worked as a software engineer at Palisade as part of the DecisionTools Suite development team.

Greg Wruck
Managing Director
GNT Project Solutions

Greg is a Civil Engineer who has experience in most facets of the Project industry, ranging from Design, Construction, Contracts, Project Management, and Project Controls.  He is the founding principal of consulting firm GNT Project Solutions that specialises in the management of information throughout all phases of the Project life cycle.  As an avid user of technology, Greg’s mission is to make it easier for project teams to harness the power of technology as a tool to be exploited, rather than as a straightjacket to work within.

As a part of this mission, Greg has delved deep into the world of information technology to understand what is actually possible with current technology, and has developed innovative ways of using technology in novel ways to solve real-world problems.  A particular area of interest relates to the ability to link Cost, Schedule and Risk information in near-real time throughout the implementation stage of major Projects. 

Greg consults to organisations engaged in the Mining and Heavy Infrastructure Industries and provides a range of services including Project Setup and Planning, Business Process Management, Owner Cost Estimating, Project Systems Analysis, Contingency / Escalation analysis and general Project Controls advice.

 

 


 


 

Palisade Corporation
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