Best Practice Principles for Modelling in Excel and @RISK Dr Michael Rees, Palisade Corporation This session aims to highlight some of the key principles that can be applied to create error free and easy to understand models in @RISK and in Excel. The session will cover a range of topics, including model structure, formatting, and sensitivity analysis.
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Einführung zu der DecisionTools Suite 5.5 (auf Deutsch) Steve Beeusaert, Regional Sales Manager, Palisade Corporation Dieser Teil der Veranstaltung findet auf Deutsch statt. Diese Veranstaltung wird Ihnen die unterschiedlichen Elemente der neuen DecisionTools Suite 5.5 vorführen die umfassende Risikoanalysen, Optimierung, Entscheidungsbaumanalysen sowie fortgeschrittene statistische Analyseverfahren ermöglichen. Anhand von praktischen Beispielen wird die Funktionsweise von @RISK 5.5 auf Deutsch sowie RISKOptimizer, Evolver, PrecisionTree, TopRank, StatTools, und NeuralTools demonstriert.
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Einführung zu @RISK 5.5 (auf Deutsch) Steve Beeusaert, Regional Sales Manager, Palisade Corporation Dieser Teil der Veranstaltung findet auf Deutsch statt. Das neue @RISK 5.5 wurde komplett ins Deutsche übersetzt. Diese Einführung wird Ihnen die neue Funktionsweise anhand von praktischen Beispielen verdeutlichen. @RISK 5.5 wurde von Grund auf umgestaltet und bietet jetzt ein intuitiveres Interface, neuen Verteilungsfunktionen, schnellere Simulationen, eine verbesserte Graphikengine mit Überlagerungsmöglichkeiten und neuen Diagrammoptionen wie z.B. Streudiagramme und erweiterte Tornadocharts. Während einer Simulation können Sie nunmehr sehen wie alle Berichte, Thumbnails und Diagramme in Echtzeit aktualisiert werden. |
Forecasting Capital Adequacy Ratios A practical update on capital management for financial institutions, including a case study emphasizing the sensitive variables for capital adequacy. Participants will gain command in the different sorts of capital management models and their ability to integrate new disruptive information. Insight on specific capital management strategies and practices will be delivered through a practical example (live model simulation with @Risk). Different modules will be reviewed using @Risk software:
Main takeaways: Optimum financing strategies & capital levels for financial institutions; Modeling frameworks for capital adequacy; Impact of economic scenarios & crisis
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Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite 5.0 (English) Randy Heffernan, Vice President, Palisade Corporation This session will show you how to use the elements of the new DecisionTools Suite 5.5 as a comprehensive risk analysis, optimisation, and statistical analysis toolkit. We will walk through a continuous example illustrating @RISK, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, PrecisionTree, TopRank, StatTools, and NeuralTools, time permitting.
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Introduction to @RISK 5.5 (English) Randy Heffernan, Vice President, Palisade Corporation This introduction to @RISK 5.5 will walk you through a risk analysis using various example models. Key features of @RISK will be highlighted, and new enhancements in version 5.5 will be pointed out along the way. You will experience the intuitive interface of @RISK 5.5 as you define distributions, compare distributions using overlays, fit distributions to data, and more. During simulation you will be able to see all charts, thumbnails, and reports update in real time. View results using the new graphing engine, Scatter Plots, and Tornado Regression – Mapped Value charts. There’s so much to see, we’ll cover as much as time permits.
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New Trends and Overview of @RISK 5.5 Randy Heffernan, Vice President, Palisade Corporation Palisade products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used across a variety of industry sectors. As such, Palisade sees multiple perspectives on risk management through its clients. Randy will briefly review risk management trends that Palisade sees developing across multiple sectors. He will also give a guided tour of the new @RISK 5.5 for Microsoft Excel. @RISK 5.5 is available in German and brings a number of important new features that improve usability, save time, and enhance Monte Carlo simulation analyses. Interface improvements, new graphs, and simulation archiving are just a few new features in version 5.5. |
Operational Hedging in Managing the risk and return of a global supply chain is of paramount importance to managers of multinational firms. The presentation demonstrates how firms can maximize their global after-tax profit and curtail their downside risk exposure through:
Using real options analysis, optimal investment strategies are developed. Methods for reducing the overall model complexity and ways of curtailing switching costs are discussed. Monte-Carlo Simulation using the @Risk software is then utilized in the analysis, i.e., determination of the value-at-risk, of such global operating strategies. Application case studies in the global automotive (supplier) industry are presented. The value of these types of real options easily exceeds the annual sales of a firm.
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Optimisation Modelling using the DecisionTools Suite Dr Michael Rees, Palisade Corporation The presentation will look at optimisation within organisations and how problems occur. Dr. Rees will explain some of the common issues and pitfalls to look out for when formulating optimisation models in Excel. He will also examine which of the tools in the DecisionTools Suite are suitable for applying to different optimisation scenarios and will illustrate this with a selection of models.
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Risk Assessment in the Value Creation Chain of Leszek Jurdziak, PhD and Justyna Wiktorowicz, MSc. Currently starting-up production of electricity from new lignite deposits becomes a very risky business. Liberalization and structural changes on electric energy markets as well as EU environmental regulations (e.g. regarding CO2 emissions pricing through emission trading schemes ETS) together with the global financial crisis have worsen the conditions for big investments and increased the area of uncertainty. Such situation requires not only optimization of joint activity of a bilateral monopoly of a mine and a power plant† but also risk analysis in the value creation chain of electric energy production. The new integrated risk evaluation method is described based on the example data of the “Legnica” mine supplying fuel to the nearby power station proposed during the Foresight Project “Scenarios of the Technological Development for the Lignite Mining and Process Industry”. Application of TopRank allowed on identification of key uncertain parameters on every step of the value creation chain from lignite deposit evaluation (resources classification and mineable reserves identification), through designing of the optimal ultimate pit maximizing joint profits of integrated firm and preparation of the optimal schedule of lignite excavation maximizing NPV or stabilizing the lignite quality, up to post mining terrain reclamation. Then several techniques were used to estimate the character and potential distribution of uncertain parameters including: conditional simulations (CS) of equally probably 3D lignite geology models and GeoRisk Assesment (GRA) during optimal scheduling of lignite excavation conducted in Datamine software (Datamine Studio 3 & NPVScheduling v.4) to appraise lignite quality, value and quantity variation in planned areas of excavation and statistical analysis of past costs and electric energy prices variability to forecast their behavior in future. The results of CS and BestFit and chosen distributions and histograms of parameters (e.g. amount and prices of CO2 emission allowances purchased by the power plant) as well as set up correlations were used as inputs in Monte Carlo simulations (MCs) of @Risk model to forecast future cash flows (CFs) variability during electric energy production. Based on revealed during simulations variability of cash flows (CFs) in each year of the optimal long-term excavation schedule (Life of Mine plan) the proper selection of risk adjusted discount rate (RADR) was possible what enabled determination of resulting histogram of NPV of the project. Statistical analysis of simulated CFs and NPV histogram allows on calculation of other non-typical risk measures as probability of loss (not attaining required rate of return), VAR of cash flows at risk (CFaR). There are plans to further develop analysis for taking into account the real option value of the project. †Jurdziak L., 2007: Economic evaluation of a lignite mine and a power plant operations with application of a bilateral monopoly model, pit optimisation methods and game theory (a monograph in Polish), Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wroclawskiej p.307. |
@RISK Adjustment of the Business Case Risk Management: Risk management creates value by identifying the risks which create value, by hedging the risk not creating value and by controlling the overall risks of the company. Modern risk management looks more broadly at risk. All types of risks are included and analysed at the same time, no matter who is formally responsible of each single risk. Risk is not necessarily undesirable. Risk is an inevitable consequence of running a profitable business. No risk, no gain. Looking at risk more offensively, the object of risk management can be defined as ensuring that the company is exposed to the risk it wishes and believes that it is exposed to. Today, risk management is acknowledged as an integrated part of good management and it is one of the recommendations of good Corporate Governance. The requirements put forward by the authorities on risk management are increasing. The banks should adapt to the new Basel II rules, non-insurance companies should adapt Solvency II and all companies should comply with the increased demands of the accounting standard on reporting of risk. Presentation
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SAP Based Schedule Risk Analysis on An examination of an innovative approach to Schedule Risk Analysis on Managed Services Contracts employing statistical techniques on SAP based data sets. Also considered is a comparative analysis with traditional @RISK Monte Carlo, Gantt based schedule analysis techniques. We will see that the methods are complimentary. The SAP-based technique is a very powerful analysis method given a suitable program environment, and the Monte Carlo technique is the only solution available before any measurable results are visible from the project and where revelation of critical path risks is required. In conclusion schedule based Monte Carlo simulations are always necessary during bidding and design phases of a project. However, in suitable projects where costs and risks are heavily weighted to ‘production’ type activities, the SAP based method offers distinct advantages including the by-products of control parameters and estimation metrics, and should be used in projects of this type. Furthermore, the SAP method offers high visibility of gains from Improvement Opportunities and Risk Mitigations.
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