Abstracts

» Download a zip file of the 2008 NYC presentations

Leading with Analysis in the Age of
Risk Management


Dr. Kimberly M. Thompson

Harvard School of Public Health

Using humor and real examples relevant to broad audiences, this talk will present critical concepts for surviving the Age of Risk Management.  Dr. Thompson will discuss why and how we should recognize the increasingly important role of risk management in our professional and personal lives.  With current concerns about collapsing financial markets, unstable governments, contaminated food in the supply chain, hurricanes, and so many other challenges, the talk will demonstrate the hazards of failing to consider the real differences between individuals that matter when making decisions, and discuss how to become empowered by uncertainty, instead of paralyzed by it.  The talk will cover a wide range of current technologies and issues, and suggest the need for significantly increased competency and use of risk analysis concepts and tools in today’s uncertain and complex world.

 

Overview of @RISK 5.5 and DecisionTools Suite 5.0

Sam McLafferty
Palisade Corporation

Sam will give a guided tour of the stunning new DecisionTools Suite 5.0 for Microsoft Excel. The DecisionTools Suite has been rewritten and expanded, adding new products to provide the most comprehensive set of quantitative tools available anywhere. All component products offer streamlined interfaces, robust reporting, new features and tighter integration with Excel and each other. The result is a powerful, cohesive package that is more than the sum of its parts.

The Suite incorporates flagship @RISK for risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, and it also adds new versions of PrecisionTree and TopRank. PrecisionTree provides decision analysis with decision trees, while TopRank performs fast, convenient "what-if" sensitivity analysis. The data analysis tools NeuralTools and StatTools have also been added, along with optimization software Evolver and RISKOptimizer. Sam will wrap up by highlighting new graphs, functions, and features of soon-to-be-released @RISK 5.5.

 

 

Uncertainty and Demand Side Management: Tools, Techniques, and Lessons Learned from BC Hydro's Energy Planning Process

Basil Stumborg
British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority (BC Hydro)

Industry Focus: Energy
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation

BC Hydro is the provincial electric utility for British Columbia. With 2m customers and annual revenues of roughly $5b, BCH is Canada’s second biggest utility.

With its current Long Term Energy Plan in front of its regulator, BC Hydro has embarked on a bold shift in its energy strategy– it intends over the next 20 years to meet almost 75% of its incremental load through energy conservation – one of the most aggressive targets in North America.

As a public utility, BC Hydro must show prudence in its energy planning. The uncertainty analysis around the energy conservation goals has played a key role in its energy planning processes. This presentation will take a small piece of that work (Demand Side Management programs) to demonstrate applications and key lessons learned.

The presentation will focus on some key aspects:

  • Eliciting expert options through structured conversations to build Tri-Gen distributions of highly uncertain forecasts;
  • Combining many individual uncertainty estimates using Monte Carlo simulation when there might be correlations across factors;
  • Benefits from using uncertainty analysis with staff new to the area;
  • Lessons learned about pitfalls and finding the right level of analysis.

The techniques discussed and models used will be simple in format to allow ease of audience understanding and to allow a more open and conversational approach for the presentation. The emphasis will be split between:

  • @RISK tools applications;
  • The “soft-side” of introducing decision analysis techniques in a corporation;
  • Lessons learned.

While the analysis within the application is still in front of the regulator, early indications suggest that this simple addition of uncertainty analysis into BC Hydro’s energy planning processes has fundamentally shifted the approach taken to this task and has laid a path for all future work in this area.

 

Automating @RISK with VBA

Dr. Chris Albright
Kelley School of Business, Indiana University

Industry Focus: Modeling, Programming
Product Focus: @RISK, StatTools

» Download the presentation

I’ve written a book, VBA for Modelers, where I teach ordinary Excel users (not professional programmers) how to automate Excel with VBA. I also teach a course at Indiana University for MBAs from this book, and it is quite popular. One possibility that very few people seem to be aware of is that VBA can be used to automate other software, including add-ins for Excel, provided that the developers of these software packages expose their object models to programmers. Many have done so, including Palisade with @RISK and StatTools. I will briefly demonstrate what it takes to automate @RISK or StatTools. If you know VBA for Excel, the battle is half over; the same basic language still works. All you have to learn is the object model of the add-in and how the software developer, in this case Palisade, expects you to interact with its software. My guess is that if you envision using this programming functionality for an occasional project only, the learning curve will be too steep. But if you can see the benefits from using it often, the VBA approach should be well worth the time it takes to master.

 

Decision Theory and the Economic Feasability of Wave Energy Desalination Systems


Dr. Brendan P. Dooher

LRF Inc

Industry Focus: Environmental Consulting
Product Focus: @RISK and PrecisionTree

The need for fresh water resources has become a critical problem in the Western United States, especially among the coastal cities due to continuing population growth, where competition is fierce for surface water and groundwater. Recent work by various researchers indicate that global warming will reduce the Sierra snow pack, reducing spring runoff and causing disruption in the West’s water supply. Increasingly, coastal water agencies have begun to examine desalination as an option for additional water supplies. Desalination gives an additional source of water that is independent of the hydrological cycle. Unlike surface water and groundwater, seawater is readily available to the high population coastal cites, even during drought years, and new major pipelines, aqueducts, or reservoir systems would be unnecessary. However, using seawater to produce drinking water is not without serious obstacles: the exceptionally high energy consumption needed to produce the high pressure requirements for reverse osmosis (RO) is approximately half the total cost of the final fresh water product. Additional energy demand has a high incremental cost, as electrical supplies and transmission systems are already utilized near their limit. Some have proposed using alternative energy to supply the energy. Among the most promising of these technologies may be ocean produced waves, which can be used to pressurize a RO system without electrical service demand, in what is referred to as a Wave Energy Desalination System (WEDS). This work concentrates on the cost estimates of applying a WEDS to various locations along the California coast, from San Diego to San Francisco, and uses @RISK and PrecisionTree to determine the economic feasibility of the development of such a system.

 

Applying Probabilistic Methods to Quantify Uncertainties in the Request for Proposal (RFP) Process

Liegh Hostetter and Poh Boon Ung
ARCADIS

Industry Focus: Project Management
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation

Large multi-million dollars projects are often put out to bid through a formal Request for Proposal (RFP) process. This is especially true for government related projects. Government agencies often bid out these projects but have to deal with significant amount of uncertainties in the bids that they receive. For example, capital projects require work over long durations totaling in the hundreds of millions of dollars that include the need for specialized workers, equipment, and materials. Workers must utilize non-routine work hours that coincide with permits and related approvals. When putting a project out to bid, these agencies typically create their own internal cost estimates and phased schedule to determine an overall required project duration and assist in evaluating the bids received from contractors. The internal estimate and schedule is based on assumptions of productivity and availability from past projects. However, bidders create their own assumptions and contingencies when evaluating the RFP and generate their estimate of duration and cost to complete the project. Thus, the agency’s and bidders’ proposed costs are often materially different. This creates a dilemma for agencies which must now then make decisions as to the reasonableness of bidders’ estimates and on which general contractor to award the project.

ARCADIS designed and have applied business processes and risk analysis models to facilitate the decision process that takes these project uncertainties and limitations into account. In particular, our model uses Palisades’ @RISK tools to create a correlated cost and schedule model. The model aims to estimate project costs from a bidder’s point of view in light of the required schedule durations, consequences of missing deadlines, and current business conditions. At the root of the base model is the agency’s underlying cost and schedule estimate. For each element, probability distributions based on expert judgment or statistical analysis of data are used to represent components including quantities, unit costs, wage rates, labor hours, durations, and activity lags. Relationships are created among schedule activities that utilize iterative formulas for activities requiring different workdays (six day week, seven day week and weekend work only). A key component of our process involves coordinating a facilitated meeting with various teams (e.g., agency design, scheduling, cost estimating and procurement) to identify project elements and risk events where the bidders might use different assumptions than the agency when generating a total project cost estimate. Examples of this are higher wage rates for limited availability of specialized labor, incorporating liquidated damages for missed deadlines that include elements out of their control, and incorporating overtime allowances for work to be completed within a short duration. Correlations among cost elements, schedule elements and between cost and schedule elements are created using @RISK correlation matrices.

Our model estimates a reasonable range for total project cost to be used to evaluate bids and also identifies activities within the project schedule that are likely to be difficult to achieve within agency specified durations. The risk analysis results assist agencies in negotiations with bidders, such as guaranteeing additional needed permits, waving liquidated damages for some items or creating material escalation clauses. The model can also be modified to examine how changing the required project duration would impact contractor bids. Combining project team knowledge, current market conditions and chance events into a probabilistic framework can assist government agencies in making tradeoffs between cost and schedule and evaluating bidders’ estimates.

 

Modeling Building: Examples of Do’s & Don’ts

Dr. Terence Reilly
Babson College

Industry Focus: Academic
Product Focus: DecisionTools Suite

» Download the presentation

What happens when you ask graduate students to apply their rudimentary understanding of simulation to complex real-world financial decisions? At the beginning of the semester, their applications are confused, haphazard, and incoherent, but by semester’s end, they have created sophisticated and wonderfully insightful models.  This is similar to the evolution that many organizations go through as they begin using simulation and decision analysis models. To practitioners, it has become second hand to rigorously think about uncertainty and incorporate probability distributions in their analysis, but this skill does not come easily to the vast majority of people.  We will discuss the typical pitfalls novice (and sometimes experienced) modelers fall into using examples from 10 years of teaching. 

 

Best Practice Execution™ Knowledge Transfer

George Pesansky
SigmaFlow

Industry Focus: Six Sigma
Product Focus: @RISK

A global Fortune 500 company with over 40 key operational locations around the globe wanted to expand their market share and at the same time reduce their working capital investment.  Operationally this could best be accomplished by compressing the time that capacity constrained resources used in these operations spend being processed in these centers. 

The global project was segmented into two phases:  Identifying the Best Demonstrated Practices across the 40+ locations.  Secondly, executing the needed change management efforts for across the board adoption of the best demonstrated practices.  To accomplish a project of this magnitude, the company hired SigmaFlow to leverage their Best Practice Transfer™ methodology and supporting system.

SigmaFlow facilitated Kaizen events at the largest and most critical facilities to capture the Best Demonstrated Practices.  The Kaizen event deliverables included:  ‘Future State’ value stream maps validated using ERP data analysis, benchmarking operational metrics, discrete event simulations (via SigmaFlow Modeler), and simulations (via Palisade @RISK).

 

Advancing IT Capacity Planning Capabilities
using Neural Networks

Clark Lowery
Fiserv/CheckFree Investment Services

Industry Focus: Electronic financial management
Product Focus: NeuralTools, DecisionTools Suite

» Download the presentation

Traditional capacity planning approaches utilize historical data to trend and forecast future requirements, and many special software tools and procedural approaches are employed in the industry. But, relating business changes and outside influences to actual hardware requirements has always been a major challenge that is at the root of most capacity shortfalls.

Utilizing the capabilities of the neural network tool within the DecisionTools suite can remove uncertainty from your IT forecasts. The resulting improvements in capital forecasts, service quality, and customer satisfaction can translate into dramatic improvements in your bottom line, while requiring a minimal investment. The learning ability of the networks you build can replace some of the need for statistical analysis specialists and reduce your dependence upon expensive high-end capacity planning software.

This presentation shows in detail how transforming data collected by various in-house departments into a common collection of influence metrics allowed CheckFree Investment Services (CIS) to leverage NeuralTools to reduce IT costs and improve customer service by anticipating the current instability of the markets and the impact on our infrastructure. A second case study shows how NeuralTools served to convince a prospective client that CIS was best suited to provide support for their funds managers, leading to a major new contract.

This innovative approach to expanding the role of traditional capacity planning that is evolving across the financial services industry can be introduced into your business, where a minor investment in materials and training will yield major benefits.

 

Evaluating Investment Gambles Using Simulation

Dr. Robert Ameo
Market Modelers

Industry Focus: Licensing and Acquisitions - R and D
Product Focus: @RISK

There are just so many histograms senior executives will look at before their eyes glaze over. For individuals who are used to making decisions on a handful of metrics from a point forecast (e.g., NPV, IRR), the data overload from a simulation forecast of an investment outcome can be both overwhelming and unwelcome. In his presentation, Dr. Ameo describes how to use the simple, straightforward language of wagering to effectively communicate the relative risks and opportunities presented by specific investments.

The derivation of key gambling metrics from a Monte Carlo simulation of NPV – Chances of winning, value of winning, cost of a loss, and “the odds” will be presented along with the appropriate language and graphics to present and discuss the findings. Implications for portfolio planning and decision making will be discussed.

 

Mitigating Project Specification Risk using @RISK

Dr. William J. McKibbin
McKibbinUSA, LLC

Industry Focus: Finance/Project Planning
Product Focus: @RISK

» View the presentation

Projects can be divided into so-called “fully-specified” and “quasi-specified” types. Fully-specified projects entail known requirements, timelines, resources, and costs, and assume that the problem or opportunity has been validated. Quasi-specified projects can be differentiated by uncertain requirements, timelines, resources, and costs, and assume that the problem or opportunity statement lacks validation. Thus, the key driver in fully-specified projects is efficiency, while inefficiency is inherent to quasi-specified projects. What we will discuss are the kinds of projects contractors bid on (fully-specified versus quasi-specified), the various issues that are the various characteristics of each type project type, applicable probability distributions, and a case study application of mitigating project specification risk during bidding.

 

An Application of Simulation in Software
Reliability Prediction

Vojo Bubevski 
TATA Consultancy Services Ltd

Industry Focus: Information Technology
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation
» Download the paper

The quantitative approach to Software Quality Management is a standard requirement for all software development projects compliant with Capability Maturity Model – CMM’s Level 4. Software Reliability is also one of the main aspects of Software Quality. Thus, achieving the software reliability goals is a major objective for software development organisations as it is a critical constraint on their projects. For example, the software will not be released to the customer for operation until the reliability goals have been achieved.

Software Reliability is the probability of failure-free software operation for a specified time period. To predict the software system reliability at some point in the future, based on metrics data available now, is one of the software projects important challenges. The implicit objective of management is to achieve the software system reliability goals while minimising costs and schedule of projects. Therefore, prediction in this sense is very useful to support software project management in achieving this objective.

This paper presents an approach of applying simulation in software reliability prediction using Palisade’s tools. Different simulation models are used in experiments to predict specific real software system reliability based on actual historical data. The simulation results are then compared with the actual data in order to evaluate and tune the models. The objective of the experiments is to select the most suitable model for this specific system. The selected model then can be used to support the management to achieve the reliability goals of the future releases of the system while minimising costs and schedule of the associated development project. The presented approach is generic and could be used for any software system development projects.

 

The Model is Only as Good as its Inputs!

Scott Randall
Lloyd's Register North America

Industry Focus: Finance
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation
» Download the paper

Author and enterprise risk expert Scott Randall of Lloyd’s Register explains how powerful regulators, auditors and major shareholders are demanding more rigor in the quality of what goes into the model. How should the risk analyst and modeler prepare for this new drumbeat of stakeholder requirements? Mr. Randall presents an information integrity protocol, screening, basic and advanced data validation processes, tools for performing a spot check of data, and ways to ensure that your model inputs are “above reproach.” By combining this new approach with solid risk management techniques, Randall demonstrates how companies achieve competitive advantage.

 

Using @RISK to Model Flu Pandemics


Henry Yennie

State of Louisiana Department of Health & Hospitals

Industry Focus: Public Health
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation

Pandemic influenza planning is occurring world-wide at all levels of government as it is generally believed that such an event is more of a “when” rather than an “if”. In the United States, the federal government has funded this planning and preparedness activity in anticipation of such an event in the near term. Along with funding, the federal government has developed a number of planning tools (FluAid, FluSurge, etc.) in the form of complex spreadsheets that attempt to help emergency management and medical institutions forecast the impact of a pandemic influenza event in a variety of areas.

Every year, every level of government diligently looks for “the number” to support a variety of emergency preparedness plans, including plans for pandemic influenza (PI). For PI planning, “the number” usually involves the number of people impacted by the outbreak (attack and infection rates), the number of persons hospitalized for treatment, the number of fatalities, and the resulting number of resources needed to cope with the event. In some cases, “the number” is a pure guess and in other cases it is based on historical data. In all cases, these models involved elaborate calculations and monstrous spreadsheets. In every case, “the number” drives resource planning, contracting, and interagency agreements at all levels.

What is certain is that there is no single “number” for any of these planning factors. Faced with an almost impossible task of developing detailed plans for as yet unspecified disasters, emergency managers have had to rely on the concept of “the number” simply to get the job done. This presentation will examine the usefulness of simulation modeling, with @RISK, in planning for a PI event. It will be based on a complex model termed “Panalysis™” developed by Mark Abramovich and will show how simulation modeling with @RISK can contribute to a more valid, defensible and actionable planning effort.

 

Lean Six Sigma Application of @RISK in Process Industries


Ed Biernat

Consulting With Impact, Ltd.

Industry Focus: Lean Six Sigma
Product Focus:@RISK

The use of Monte Carlo simulation is growing in Lean Six Sigma applications. The ability to model actual data and then apply proposed changes to the model before modifying brick and mortar has significant appeal in capital-intensive industries including steel making. In this paper, the Lean Six Sigma approach is detailed for a project to reduce steel inclusions in billet stock. Specifically, the modeling of the various queues in the process is analyzed to determine the potential impact of several proposed capital and process improvements. The team’s high level approach to the problem, their use of various tools including @RISK, as well as a detailed review of the queuing analysis are covered. Finally, the presentation explores the lessons learned and additional applications of simulation in this and similar projects.

 

The Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on
Electricity Consumption in British Columbia


Frank McGowan

British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority (BC Hydro)

Industry Focus: Energy/Market Forecasting
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation

Interest in electric vehicles is rising rapidly. All of the major domestic and foreign automakers have announced plans to begin to market some sort of electric vehicle. The implications could be enormous for the environment and the electric utility industry.

A model that calculates the potential impact of plug in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles on BC Hydro’s Load Forecast will be presented. Several market share scenarios will be discussed. Impact on electricity consumption and peak load will be calculated. Petroleum displacement will be discussed.

The daily timing of electric vehicle demand will be included, as well as the interaction of electric vehicle load on the electric grid and capacity requirements. @RISK will be used throughout to quantify the extreme uncertainty in the timing and extent of the introduction of electric vehicles is well as the integration of their impact into BCHydro’s stochastic load forecast.

 

A Refined Approach for Defining Construction Project Uncertainty


Jason L. G. Mewis, P.Eng.

ENGCOMP

Industry Focus: Engineering/Construction
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation
» Download the paper

Risk analysis is a term or concept that that has many different meanings to many different people. Often projects include some form of qualitative risk planning, brainstorming or mitigation but few do true quantitative risk analysis at the budgeting phase. Many experts concur that if you don’t do some sort of quantitative analysis, you’re not really doing risk analysis at all and in a lot of cases you may even be wasting your time.

Using knowledge and training from the PMI, AACE and Palisade combined with solid experience as a project manager and senior engineer in the heavy industrial sector, Jason has developed a new approach which is being adopted by industrial companies and organizations such as the Canadian Department of National Defence. The process is used for doing project risk analysis for quantifying uncertainty on capital construction budgets. What is unique about the approach is a dual S-Curve concept used for quantifying Contingency separate from Risk Reserve on the project. The analysis also yields Schedule Contingency and incorporates concepts such as Escalation and Cash Flow modelling.

The presentation will cover an overview of the process which includes concepts like Calibration Training and Risk Register Brainstorming as well as plans for future integration of other financial modeling concepts. For more information visit www.engcomp.ca.

 

Project Cost Risk Analysis Using the Risk Driver Approach and @RISK


Keith Hornbacher
and Dr. David T. Hulett
Hulett & Associates, LLC

Industry Focus: Project Cost Risk Analysis
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation

Traditional project cost risk analysis starts with putting 3-point estimates on cost line items and simulating the cost model to derive overall project cost probability distributions. In this way the overall results can be obtained, but when we try to prioritize the risks that cause the uncertain overall project cost result we can at best identify the cost line items that are important.

This presentation introduces a new approach that starts with the specific risks that are listed in the Risk Register that is usually available from qualitative risk analysis methods. These risks are characterized by their probability of occurring and multiplicative risk range using Palisade @RISK. Then the risks are assigned to cost line items as appropriate. Risks can be assigned to several costs and some costs may be affected by several risks. Hence we are modeling how individual risks affect the resulting project cost. One benefit from this modeling approach is that we model correlation rather than assume some correlation coefficient between line item costs. Another key benefit is that the individual risks (not costs) can be prioritized in their importance to overall project cost so management can focus on mitigating risks (you cannot mitigate a cost line item, of course). We show how risk prioritization is accomplished and how risk mitigation can be analyzed.

 

Simulating the Financial Consequences of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis


Dr. Roy Nersesian

Monmouth University

Industry Focus: Finance/Banking/Real Estate
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation
» Download the paper

We’ll examine how the selling of mortgages as investments (collateralized mortgage obligations, or CMOs,) coupled with lax governmental regulation and the greed of house flippers fueled the flames of the home buying and building frenzy. An @RISK simulation shows exactly how and where investors lost in the ensuing housing market meltdown.

Large Capital Projects:
Managing Point of No Return


Mark Robson

Oliver Wyman

Industry Focus: Finance
Product Focus: @RISK

When taking on large capital projects, organizations reach a point when there is so much capital and market sentiment invested in the project, that it becomes very complex to back away from it--It's reached the point of no return. Often the reasons why an organization wants to cancel a project are related to escalating costs or the extended payback periods--This is also the point of no return. The key to avoiding this double entendre is having a model that projects the cash flows of the project on a risk adjusted basis from the engineering phase through to the end of a long period of operation. If build right, the tool produces early warnings for EPC, market, schedule and commercial contract risks that would materialize in the future thus allowing management more flexibility to act today. The challenge you face is building this tool when the number @RISK distributions grows well into the 100's. This session will highlight some of the approaches we've developed to make the construction and management of these tools manageable.

 

PowerProjector: Application of Risk Simulation to Energy Cost Projection, Budgeting, and
Value at Risk Analysis


Jack Mason

E Source/Energy Window

Industry Focus: Energy Conservation
Product Focus: @RISK

One of the most daunting challenges today for multiple facility companies is energy cost projection and budgeting. Companies with large numbers of facilities in multiple utility territories in North America must try to project electricity and natural gas costs that are impacted by a range of drivers and circumstances, all of which differ significantly from utility to utility and all of which change with different time dependency.

Most companies develop either single point projections or arbitrarily set ranges (e.g., +/- 5%) of projections based on an overall historical trends and (usually incomplete and unreliable) input from individual utility account representatives. As a consequence, the effort takes a significant effort, doesn’t evoke significant confidence on the part of companies’ financial officers, and has limited value for other application such as value at risk.

In order to address this challenge, EnergyWindow (now a part of E Source) developed a tool for companies to use for energy cost projections, budgeting, value at risk analysis, risk management, and procurement decision support. It combines

  • Detailed state by state and utility by utility research into generation sources, rate trends, and rate case histories,
  • Estimates of fractions of rates driven by fuel- or commodity-related costs versus those driven by other factors,
  • Judgments and statistical characterization of future rate increases as well as contract costs,
  • Integration with energy consumption projections, and
  • Statistical simulation of total (or partial) spend for the companies’ total portfolios of facilities.

The results are probability distributions for total cost projections (or portions thereof) that can be used for budgeting, value at risk analysis, risk management, and procurement decision support. It has thus far been applied to a large retailer with more than 1000 facilities in the US and a hotel chain with more than 600 facilities in the US. The presentation will:

  • Provide more background on the problem,
  • Outline the utility rate research approach,
  • Review the model assumptions,
  • Review the detailed model,
  • Show example applications,
  • Present typical results, and
  • Discuss limitations and further development needs.

Creating Simulation Forecast Models Using @RISK


Michael A. Kubica, MBA, MS

Applied Quantitative Sciences, Inc.

Industry Focus: Business Forecasting
Product Focus: @RISK

» Download the presentation

Strategic forecasting is risky business, at times extending greater than 10 years into the future. Applied Quantitative Sciences, Inc. (AQS) has developed rigorous procedures, sophisticated quantitative methods and quality management protocols that ensure reliable and representative forecasts for existing and novel technologies within the life sciences. AQS is relied upon by some of the world’s largest pharmaceutical, medical device and biotechnology companies who utilize their forecasts for valuation of acquisition targets, strategic planning and supply chain management. In this workshop, Michael Kubica, President of AQS, will share:

  • Roles and responsibilities within the forecasting team
  • Components of a representative forecast
  • Managing validity, reliability and credibility of the forecast
  • Pitfalls to avoid when reporting outputs
  • Tools for simplifying the task of simulation forecasting

In support of forecasting projects, AQS employs @RISK and AQS Model Builder, an Excel addin for market simulation and forecasting that simplifies the representation of complex market dynamics. Workshop examples will incorporate the use of these powerful tools.

Arbitrage, Isoprofit Functions and ROI:
The New World of Sports Gaming!


Clayton Graham

DePaul University, Chaos Group, Inc., Analytical Advantages, LLC

Industry Focus: Gaming
Product Focus: @RISK
, StatTools, RISKOptimizer

Ever since Abner Doubleday threw out the first pitch and James Naismith shot his first “hoop”, wagering on the result has become more than a past time in the United States. Sports lines and odds are published in virtually all major newspaper and across the internet every day. From Las Vegas to Macau and throughout the internet, sports’ gaming literally is an industry grossing in the hundreds of billions worldwide.

First, there are inequities between the production (playing the game) and wagering markets (lines and odds.) Identifying disequilibrium between those factors on one hand and capitalizing on the opportunities presented on the other is only the initial step to turning a dynamic profit.

Second, the type of wagering available today has opened new avenues to stochastically based economically driven decision models.

So you want to make a bundle?

Through innovative approaches to:

  • Calculating probabilities,
  • Quantification of risk,
  • Utilizing expected values of return on investment,
  • Exploiting market inequities through arbitrage,
  • Time dependent decision making,

a whole new world of pragmatic gaming awaits. Using StatTools, @RISK and RISKOptimizer these building blocks from Palisade are put to innovative and exciting use.

 

Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite 5.0

Erik Westwig
Software Engineer
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

This session will show you how to use the elements of the new DecisionTools 5.0 Suite as a comprehensive risk analysis, optimisation, and statistical analysis toolkit. Each of the products in the suite, @RISK, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, PrecisionTree, TopRank, StatTools, and NeuralTools, will be presented, showing how they can be used to solve practical problems in the real-world.


Introduction to @RISK 5.5

Thompson Terry
Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

Try @RISK 5.5 yourself! This hands-on introduction will briefly recap the main benefits and uses of risk analysis before walking you through key features in @RISK 5.5. You will experience the all-new interface as you define distributions, compare distributions using overlays, fit distributions to data, and more. Review and edit your entire model in the new @RISK Model window. Swap distributions out for non-@RISK users using the new Function Swap feature. Watch all charts, thumbnails, and reports update in real time. View results using the new graphing engine, Scatter Plots, and Tornado Regression – Mapped Value charts. New interface features and graphs in unreleased version 5.5 will be covered. There is so much to see, we’ll cover as much as time permits.

 

Advanced Features in @RISK

Sam McLafferty and Howard Duncan
Palisade Corporation

The soon-to-be-released @RISK 5.5 includes new functions, interface features, graphs, and simulation archiving capabilities. See how the @RISK Library has been enhanced for simulation archiving and sampling. A portfolio optimization example combining the @RISK Library and RISKOptimizer will be shown. Additionally, we’ll cover how entering functions is easier, show how to combine density and cumulative graphs into one, and demonstrate enhancements to correlation matrices.

 

Introduction to PrecisionTree 5.0

Erik Westwig
Software Engineer
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

This presentation combines an introduction of the enhanced user interface, tighter Excel integration, and new features of PrecisionTree 5.0, with demonstrations of how PrecisionTree can be used to analyse various problems in decision analysis.


Introduction to NeuralTools and StatTools 5.0

Thompson Terry
Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

In this session we will learn how to use Palisade’s two data analysis tools: NeuralTools and StatTools.

NeuralTools imitates brain functions in order to “learn” the structure of your data. Once NeuralTools understands the data, it can take new inputs and make intelligent predictions. The new predictions are based on the patterns in known data, and offer uncanny accuracy. NeuralTools can automatically update predictions when input data changes, and it can even be combined with Palisade’s Evolver or Excel’s Solver to optimize tough decisions and achieve desired goals.

StatTools is a Microsoft Excel statistics add-in. This session will cover how to perform the most common statistical tests, and will include topics such as: Statistical Inference, Forecasting, Data Management, Summary Analyses, and Regression Analysis.

 

Introduction to RISKOptimizer and Evolver 5.0

Thompson Terry
Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

RISKOptimizer and Evolver use powerful genetic algorithms to perform optimization in Microsoft Excel. RISKOptimizer builds on traditional optimization by adding Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertain (stochastic), uncontrollable factors in your optimization problem. This session introduces you to these powerful tools, showing you how to set up a model, define constraints within the model, and ultimately arrive at the optimal outcome. Examples of resource allocation, budgeting, and scheduling will be included.

 

Introduction to Project Risk Management using @RISK for Project

Dr. Javier Ordóñez
Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

The aim of this seminar is to give people a basic understanding of how @RISK for Microsoft Project works, including hands-on experience for setting up and running simulations, and interpreting the results.

Attendees will learn about the key functionality within @RISK for Project in step-by-step method, enabling them to quickly become familiar with basic concepts and terminology.

In addition to graphing and quantifying the risk in a business plan, you will learn how @RISK for Project, using Monte Carlo simulation, enables you to:

  • Calculate the probability of success
  • Graph the margin of error around the most likely outcome
  • Quantify and prioritise the risk drivers
  • Quantify the amount ‘@RISK’

 

 

Real Options with DecisionTools Suite 5.0

Dr. Javier Ordóñez
Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

This session introduces the topic of real options modelling as an extension of risk modelling. The link to general decision making under uncertainty and financial market options is also discussed. A variety of examples using @RISK and PrecisionTree is presented.

Selecting the Right Distribution

Dr. Javier Ordóñez
Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. The use of distributions to treat a variety of risk modelling situations is discussed.



Presenters

Dr. Kimberly M. Thompson, Keynote Speaker
Associate Professor of Risk Analysis and Decision Science
Department of Health Policy and Management
Harvard University

Professor Thompson's research interests and teaching focus on the issues related to developing and applying quantitative methods for risk assessment and risk management, and consideration of the public policy implications associated with including uncertainty and variability in risk characterization. Drawing on a diverse background, she seeks to effectively integrate technological, social, political, legal, and economic issues into risk analyses that inform public policy and improve decision making in what she calls the "Age of Risk Management."

She created and directs the Kids Risk Project, which aims to empower kids, parents, policy makers, and others to make better decisions when managing children's risks. This effort applies risk and decision analysis tools to highlight the value of informed decisions and it will ultimately lead to the development of appropriate risk models for children. This work builds on Professor Thompson’s long-standing interest in the issues related to variability in risk for sensitive sub-populations, particularly children, and the potential risk tradeoffs associated with policies designed to protect them. The work includes research on a range of children's risks including injury, environmental, medical, and product-related risks, as well as perception of children's risks and the portrayal of risky behaviors in popular entertainment media. In January 2003, Professor Thompson co-founded the Center on Media and Child Health at Children's Hospital Boston. At the first Kids Risk Symposium, Dr. Thompson released the first study of the Fortune 1000 companies aimed at assessing their commitments to children.

Professor Thompson continues to explore the implications of using different analytical tools for structuring information, a theme that is central to her teaching. She directs Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Assessment, Management, and Communication (http://www.pracourse.harvard.edu ), a Professional Education course that meets each fall at the Harvard School of Public Health. As the use of quantitative analysis continues to grow, Professor Thompson looks at how the type of analysis used (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, value-of-information analysis, risk-only or health-only analysis, etc.) influences and determines the policy outcome. Professor Thompson's work currently focuses heavily on system dynamics and dynamic modeling, particularly in the context of modeling policies for polio risk management after the success of global eradication.

Building on her broad training, Professor Thompson also focuses on the characterization of information and communication of risks. She developed a guide to help consumers take charge of health information that appears in her book called Risk in Perspective: Insight and Humor in the Age of Risk Management. She uses this book as a text in her course ID285: Environmental Health Risk: Concepts and Cases, which she offers in the HSPH Wintersession. Recognized as a Society for Risk Analysis/Sigma Xi Distinguished Lecturer and popular keynote speaker, she speaks widely about life in the Age of Risk Management.

Professor Thompson continues to develop her interests in improving risk communication to help consumers and organizations manage their risks.

Dr. Chris Albright
Professor of Operations & Decision Technologies
Kelly School of Business
Indiana University

Dr. Chris Albright’s professional interests and expertise are in Spreadsheet Modeling for Optimization, Statistical Analysis and Simulation, Developing Excel Add-ins for Statistics, Statistics for Research, Stochastic Models in Management Science, Quantitative Methods for MBA Core, Web Page Development and Database Access with .NET, Data Mining, and VBA for Excel. He is the author and co-author of many books, including VBA for Modelers; Data Analysis and Decision Making, (with Wayne Winston and Christopher Zappe) ; and Practical Management Science (with Wayne Winston). Also, Dr. Chris Albright developed the statistical add-in StatsPro for Excel, later developed as StatTools by Palisade Corp.

Dr. Robert Ameo
Market Modelers, LLC
During his tenure with Johnson & Johnson, Dr. Ameo developed an expertise in forecasting adoption of new medical technologies and market share for a wide range of medical device, and biopharmaceutical products. He worked with business development, R&D and marketing in evaluating investment opportunities. Currently, he is an independent consultant specializing in valuing future revenue and cash flow streams for strategic planning, project prioritization, and investment decisions.

Bob designs and executes simulation forecasts and the associated market research to power key adoption and share assumptions. Using metrics such as the probability of value creation and return on money at risk (ROMR), he helps organizations understand and maximize the ‘odds’ of winning when making bets on risky investments.

Ed Biernat
President
Consulting With Impact, Ltd

Edward Biernat is the president of Consulting With Impact, Ltd., a training, coaching, and consultancy located in Canandaigua, NY that he founded in 1998. CWI’s client list includes companies ranging from the Fortune 100 to post-startups in the medical device, food and food packaging, steel, automotive, healthcare, and service sectors. He is a graduate of Clarkson University with bachelor degrees in Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, and has held positions in engineering, quality, and management at several New York companies. He is the author of numerous training programs and articles, and has presented at national and international events including the Institute of Industrial Engineers’ Annual Conference and the European Organization for Quality in Brussels, Belgium. Ed also developed part of the curriculum for and presents at the Lean Six Sigma Black Belt certification course at a local college.

Vojo Bubevski
Senior Systems Analyst/Designer, Legal & General Accounts
TATA Consultancy Services Ltd.

Vojo Bubevski comes from Macedonia. He graduated from the University of Zagreb, Croatia in 1977, receiving a degree in Electrical Engineering - Computer Science. He started his professional career in 1978 as Analyst Programmer in Alkaloid Pharmaceuticals, Skopje, Macedonia. At Alkaloid, he worked on applying Operations Research methods to solve commercial and pharmaceutical technology problems from 1982 to 1986.

In 1987 Vojo immigrated to Australia. He worked for IBM Australia from 1988 to 1997. The first five years at IBM he worked in IBM Australia Programming Center developing systems software. The rest of his IBM career was spent working in IBM’s Core Banking Solution Centre.

In 1997, he immigrated in the United Kingdom where started his IT consulting career. As IT consultant, Vojo has worked for Lloyds TSB Bank in London, Svenska Handelsbanken in Stockholm, and Legal & General Insurance in London.

In June 2008, he joined TATA Consultancy Services Ltd where he’s currently a Senior Software Systems Analyst/Designer.

Dr. Brendan P. Dooher
Senior Associate
LFR Inc

Dr. Brendan Dooher is a LFR Senior Associate and a junior Fellow of the National Academy of Engineering, part of the National Academy of Sciences. He specializes in risk and decision analysis using statistical assessments of environmental, water resources, and energy data combined with analytical and numerical modeling. He has over ten years of experience working in these fields, and has extensive knowledge of the State of California’s regulatory and business environment. Dr. Dooher has worked on major technical and policy issues addressing environmental impacts from contaminants, water resource usage, energy systems, engineering solutions to carbon dioxide emissions, carbon sequestration, and requirements for a transition to a hydrogen economy. Dr. Dooher received his PhD in the field of Mechanical Engineering, with a specialization in Systems Analysis and Environmental Risk Assessment, and a minor in Numerical Analysis. Statistical analysis of a statewide leaking underground fuel tank (LUFT) environmental database formed the basis for his dissertation research. He was part of the LLNL team that pointed out the danger to California groundwater from the gasoline additive MTBE, and he continues to assess it on an economic and environmental basis.

Keith Hornbacher
Hulett & Associates, LLC

Keith D. Hornbacher, MBA, specializes in project risk management in the aerospace/defense, energy, pharmaceutical, medical devices, and health care sectors in North America and Europe.

Mr. Hornbacher has managed teams of risk analysts while pioneering Monte Carlo simulation of complex project risks. Among signature achievements are analyzing cost/schedule risks of stealth aircraft prototypes, off-shore oil drilling platforms, and large diameter cross country natural gas pipelines. His project experience in private and public sectors ranges from mega-projects to innovative startups.

As an Affiliated Faculty member, University of Pennsylvania, he teaches graduate project risk management courses. In addition, Mr. Hornbacher conducts seminars for the Project Management Institute and industry clients.

Leigh A. Hostetter
Senior Economist
ARCADIS

Leigh Hostetter specializes in high level data analysis and modeling techniques.  She worked in environmental economic consulting for three years, and spent a year as an Equity Advisor on Wall Street before taking her current position.  Leigh’s professional experience includes membership with the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (AERE), presenting research at AERE’s 2004 Camp Resources, and publishing a paper with the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA).  She received a B.A. in Economics from Skidmore College in 2002 with highest honors, and was the recipient of the 2002 Weiss Prize for achievement in economic research.

Howard Duncan
Software Engineer
Palisade Corporation

Howard has worked as a software engineer at Palisade since 1999, where his most recent responsibilities include the development of the @RISK Library. He has been involved in software and product development for 27 years, as design engineer at Eastman Kodak and more recently as a development manager for Smith Corona Corporation. He has several U.S. patents related to process control and data encoding, and holds a BS in Mathematics/Computer Science.


Clayton Graham
DePaul University, Chaos Group, Inc., Analytical Advantages, LLC

Clay Graham is an adjunct professor of Statistics and Economics at DePaul University. He holds senior positions with the Chaos Group, Inc. and Analytical Advantages,LLC where he functions as a management consultant specializing in analytical and graphic econometrics. His formal education includes a B.S. from Purdue and graduate degrees in Economics (M.A.) and Business (M.B.A. - Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University). He was a NASA Scholar (National Aeronautical and Space Administration) during his Ph.D. studies at Northwestern (concentration in advanced large scale computer modeling and mathematical simulation.) Clay has functioned in various advisory capacities to Purdue and Northwestern Universities.

His entrée into the education field first came while a volunteer for a citizens group in Barrington (evaluating academics, finances and taxes). During that project, creation of integrated databases and innovative statistical modeling drew the interest of many professionals and resulted in his presentations to: The White House, Illinois State Board of Education, Center for Governmental Studies (Northern Illinois University) and many boards of education.

Prior to his current undertakings, he was CEO of an upstart aerospace, laser mapping and engineering firm. He’s brought with him years of practical management and leadership experience from the metal finishing industry where he owned and operated his own firms in the Chicago area. He introduced effective statistical process control technology to many firms including: Motorola, Siemens and Ford. He served that industry by being president of the local trade association, a director of several national alliances and sitting on industry standardization and quality committees.

Prior to running his own companies, Graham was with one of the world's foremost Management Consulting firms - A.T.Kearney, lnc. where he introduced cutting edge computer and mathematical modeling to the transportation and service distribution industries. Clay has written and published extensively in the areas of: profitability and control, marketing, financial risk, computer integrated manufacturing and technology. He has been a featured and keynote speaker at many trade association and professional conclaves. He was awarded the top technical paper in the world at the SECOND ASIAN METAL FINISHING FORUM (part of the Tokyo World Exposition). At INTEREX EUROPE (Hewlett-Packard users) he presented an award winning work on a fully integrated system of research and development, process control and management integrating: personal computers, micro-systems, programmable controllers and digital-analog interfaces. He was also the subject of a press conference by Alteon Networks at Networld + Interop (Atlanta 1998) where he introduced the first commercial application of large file transfer incorporating “Jumbo Frame Technology”.

Clay and his companies have been the subject of articles in Forbes, Business Week, Modern Metals, Industrial Finishing and Arthur Andersen's Small Business Forum. In addition, the methods incorporated in the management of his firms have been utilized in academic case studies in the United States and Western Europe. He was selected to speak on “The Management of Professional Advisors” before a joint session of the American Bar Association and American Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

He has served as an Advisor to the White House and Members of Congress in the areas of economics, environmental control and management strategy.

Dr. David T. Hulett
Hulett & Associates, LLC

David Hulett consults and trains in project risk management and scheduling through his firm, Hulett & Associates, LLC of Los Angeles. His clients have included companies in many industries: oil and gas, construction, pharmaceutical development and plant construction, transportation, communications, IT, large science, and aerospace and defense. He has consulted for several US Government agencies including Defense and Energy department agencies, the General Services Administration and the Government Accountability Office. Dr. Hulett focuses on qualitative and quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis and on project scheduling. Clients of Hulett & Associates, LLC are in the US, the Far East, South America and the Middle-East.

Dr. Hulett was project manager for the Risk Management chapter, of the Project Management Institute’s PMBOK® Guide in 2000 and the 3PrdP Edition. Dr. Hulett has been a member of the Core Committee for the PMI Practice Standard for Scheduling and is the Deputy Project Manager of the PMI Practice Standard for Risk Management. He has served as Director of Technology Development of the PMI RiskSIG and as the Director for Schedule Risk of the College of Scheduling.

Dr. Hulett has held strategic planning positions at TOSCO, an oil company, and at TRW in aerospace and defense. In the Federal government, Dr. Hulett managed offices in the Federal Energy Agency, Department of Energy and the Office of Management and Budget. He was an Instructor in the Economics Department at Harvard University. His Ph.D. in Economics is from Stanford and B.A. from Princeton.

Michael A. Kubica, MBA, MS
Sr. Scientist, Econometric Modeling
Applied Quantitative Sciences, Inc.

Michael is Founder and President of Applied Quantitative Sciences, Inc. He has over 18 years experience within the healthcare industry, and has been providing quantitative sciences consultancy since 1999. Michael has extensive experience in providing quantitative decision support solutions for leading pharmaceutical, medical device/diagnostics, and biotechnology companies, addressing a wide range of business issues. Prior to establishing AQS, Michael Held the position of Vice President, Operations for Magellan Health Services. During his career Michael has also held positions of Director of Quality Management, Regional Director of Business Operations & Finance, and Hospital Administrator. Throughout his career, Michael employed sophisticated quantitative methods to forecast performance, streamline operations, and improve quality. Michael has an MBA and Master’s of Science in psychology. He serves Adjunct Professor of Research Design and Statistical Analysis at St. Thomas University in Miami, FL.

Applied Quantitative Sciences, Inc. (AQS) is a consultancy specializing in assisting medical device, pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies make decisions under conditions of complexity and uncertainty. They are a market leader in providing simulation and optimization models which are used by industry leaders for the purposes of forecasting, new technology valuation, business and strategic planning, supply chain management, and resource planning.

Clark Lowery
Director, Capacity and Performance Engineering
CheckFree Investment Services

With degrees in accounting/finance, computer science, and funds management, Mr. Lowery has spent 25 years in private industry after military time with the 101st Airborne.

For 15 years, he provided consulting expertise to the nuclear industry for operations and maintenance systems and processes, and then moved into the financial services industry in a succession of IT roles.

Most recently Mr. Lowery has built an IT engineering division for CheckFree Electronic Commerce, and then taken on the same role for Investment Services (after a Fiserv/CheckFree merger). In this role he acquired extensive experience with many facets of IT operations and management, and became recognized as a leader in the field of IT performance management.

Mr. Lowery serves as the IT liaison to Fiserv’s largest funds management clients and frequently presents technical solutions to client challenges as part of an ongoing client relationship-management program.

Dr. Jack Mason
Vice President
E Source/Energy Window

Dr. Mason is currently a Vice President with E Source and leads the company’s business serving large multiple facility companies with energy conservation, supply management, and sustainability tools and services. He was previously chief executive and founder of EnergyWindow, a business-to-business electronic commerce firm that provides an online platform and associated tools which business energy buyers use to procure energy and manage supply. He has contributed and participated in the development of competitive energy markets and standards in various states as well as nationally. He has assisted more than 100 national companies source more than $1 billion in energy supply in virtually every competitive energy market in North America.

Previously he was senior vice president of The Indus Energy Group, supporting senior industry executives in developing and implementing strategies to improve energy organization and energy asset performance, value, and risk. Prior to that, he was a vice president of an executive consulting firm that provided assistance to senior executives in the electric power industry in strategic planning, organizational change, and performance improvement. Concurrently, he was an adjunct graduate faculty member and instructor in the Engineering Management Program at the University of Colorado. Prior to that he served as president of a publicly traded professional services company with approximately $40 million annual revenue and 350 employees providing management consulting, energy and facility engineering, environmental services, and information systems for the power and other industries and government clients.

In 1989 and 1990, he was a Sloan Fellow at MIT’s Sloan School of Management participating in an intensive 12-month program of academics and research in the US, Japan, and Europe. Prior to that, he served as manager and executive of various engineering and management consulting firms. He served as an officer in the US Navy nuclear power submarine program. He has 40 year of energy industry experience.

Education: BS, U.S. Naval Academy 1966; MS, Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1973; ScD, Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1976; MS, Management, Sloan School of Management, 1990.

Frank McGowan
Senior Economist
Market Forecasting
British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority (BC Hydro)

Frank S. McGowan is a Senior Economist with BC Hydro. He has a MS in Mathematics form New York University (Courant Institute) and a MA in Economics from the University of Alberta. He has taught mathematics at NYU, SUNY and Hofrtra University. At present he is working on stochastic forecasting models for load forecasting and for price forecasting. His experience includes work in applied mathematics and econometrics in a variety of industries including aerospace, medical research, telecommunications and electric power.


Dr. William J McKibbin
Consultant to Management
McKibbinUSA, LLC

Dr William J McKibbin is a consultant to management specializing in strategic and operational planning, business modeling, risk analysis, financial engineering, systems integration, process design, project management, due diligence, turnarounds, executive coaching, and team leadership. Dr McKibbin's client list includes names such as Intel, Oracle, Chevron, Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Pfeizer, Guggenheim Capital, and others. Dr McKibbin has been in professional practice serving companies, boards, and executives in various capacities as consultant, director, and interim management since 1998.

Sam McLafferty
President and CEO
Palisade Corporation

Sam McLafferty is Palisade's founder, president, and CEO. He started the company in 1984 with the release of PRISM, a stand-alone Monte Carlo simulation package for DOS on the PC. PRISM later evolved into @RISK for Lotus 1-2-3, and then for Excel. Sam is Palisade's lead developer, with over thirty years of programming experience. He works closely with the technical and sales staff, ensuring that customer feedback is heard. He personally oversees the development and evolution of every one of the fifteen software products Palisade sells. Prior to Palisade, he was a risk analysis consultant.

Jason L.G. Mewis, P.Eng.
President
ENGCOMP Engineering & Computing Professionals Inc.

As the founder and president of ENGCOMP, Jason has over 12 years of experience working on projects for the heavy industrial market in Saskatchewan, as both a Senior Structural Engineer and Project Manager. Over the course of the last seven years, Jason has concentrated his efforts on front-end project planning and risk analysis.

Jason is a registered professional engineer with permission to consult in Saskatchewan, Alberta & British Columbia for industrial, commercial, and residential projects. He is experienced in many areas including project management, estimating, planning, and structural engineering. What distinguishes him is his specialized training in risk analysis and computer programming. Combining this experience with a strong problem-solving background and project execution track record gives Jason a unique skill set that is invaluable to ENGCOMP’s clients on many fronts.

Dr. Roy Nersesian
Professor, School of Business
Monmouth University

B.S. Physics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute followed by 8 years in the U.S. Navy with last position as Chief Engineer on a Polaris submarine. Graduated from Harvard Business School with a MBA and worked for a shipping company, a bank in shipping finance, and a consultant for a ship brokerage firm, and finally a professor at the School of Business, Monmouth University. He has written several books, one of which is Corporate Financial Risk Management published by Praeger Press, 2004 from which the presentation is drawn. His most recent book is Energy in the 21st Century published by M. E. Sharpe. He is also associated with the Center of Energy and Marine Transportation at Columbia University where @RISK simulation is an integral part of his course in quantitative analysis.

Dr. Javier Ordóñez
Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation
Advanced Programs Radar Systems, Lockheed Martin

Javier Ordóñez holds a BS in Civil Engineering from the Universidad de Cuenca, Ecuador and a M.S. in Project Management from the University of Maryland. Javier earned his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland performing research on project risk analysis; his current research deals with cost and schedule integration and correlation issues through the use of Bayesian belief networks.

His experience is in the area of construction and project management, optimal project and capital investments selection, earned value management, engineering and project risk analysis and operations research applications to engineering and management problems.

He has taught as an adjunct professor in the Project Management Program at University of Maryland, and provides training in risk and decision analysis. He is also registered as a Project Management Professional (PMP).

Jorge Pica
Operations Deputy Manager, Electronic Sytems - LSS Black Belt
Lockheed Martin

Jorge Pica currently serves as the Deputy Program Manager for Weather Radar Programs - Advanced Programs Radar Systems. He is a certified LSS Black Belt and has several years experience implementing DFSS techniques/tools on several Missile Defense Programs within Lockheed Martin. He is a graduate of Brigham Young University and Lockheed Martin’s Leadership Development Program.

George Pesansky
VP Customer Solutions
SigmaFlow

George Pesansky is a thought leader in the area of Knowledge Transfer and Results Replication. As a Master Black Belt, Lean and Six Sigma Trainer, George has developed over 500 continuous improvement professionals and facilitated the development of Continuous Improvement and Knowledge Transfer efforts at companies such as Starwood Hotels, National Starch and Chemical, Henkel, MeadWestvaco, Huhtamaki, MGM, Halliburton, Encana, Weitz, H.J. Heinz, and the U.S. Department of Defense. As the innovator of the Success Modes Effects Analysis (SMEA), he has created new fusion between the traditional roles of Continuous Improvement and Knowledge Management. George is also a qualified Meyers Briggs Type Indicator facilitator and speaks annually at NYU about the MBTI profile in Continuous Improvement and Knowledge Transfer.

Scott Randall
Business Manager-Risk Management Services
Lloyd's Register North America

Presenting a robust framework for ensuring reliable input data- including qualitative and quantitative tools and a step by step approach for validating information.

Scott Randall is an enterprise risk manager with over 25 years of experience across the fields of financial and operational risk management, international marketing, strategic planning, and infrastructure project development. Currently he leads the risk management consulting practice for Lloyd’s Register in the Americas. Over the course of his career, he has taught and lectured on enterprise risk management and international market intelligence techniques at numerous parastatal and investor-owned oil and gas companies. Randall received a BS in Civil Engineering from Michigan Technological University, an MBA in International Management from Thunderbird and has done post graduate work in energy risk management at the University of Houston and Rice University. He is author of a new book published by PennWell Publishing entitled, Energy, Risk and Competitive Advantage, The Information Imperative.



Dr. Terence Reilly
Associate Professor
Babson College

Since coming to Babson College, Dr. Reilly has focused much of his attention on how best to educate his students. He has spearheaded curriculum changes in the graduate and undergraduate management science classes. He has been awarded a grant to implement cooperative learning in the classroom and was an invited speaker at the Teaching of Management Science Conference, University of Indiana, 2000. Dr. Reilly has also developed a distance learning course in decision analysis with the Babson/Intel MBA program.

Dr. Reilly's research interests include decision analysis, sensitivity analysis, copulas (multivariate distributions), and applied statistics. Other areas of expertise are in decision and risk analysis and simulations models. He has been published in Management Science, Decision Sciences, Structural Equation Modeling, and Sociological Methods and Research. He is also co-author with Bob Clemen of Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools.

Mark Robson
Partner
Oliver Wyman

Mark Robson is a Partner at Oliver Wyman. He has over 20 years experience in developing leading edge approaches risk analytics from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives. He specializes in designing tools enabling clients to conduct risk adjusted strategic planning, capital budgeting, portfolio modeling, commodity hedging and mitigation optimization. His experience spans from energy, chemical, technology companies through to international financial institutions and insurance companies. His projects all relate to using risk knowledge to optimize the risk - return trade off. This includes transforming ERM from a compliance exercise to an enterprise value optimization strategy.

Recently Mark has been helping organizations build risk models to understand and manage investments in large capital projects. These tools alert management to issues while there is still time for strategic responses. Some of the key wins for his clients have been in designing the terms of commercial agreements to ensure the amount of downside protection embedded is commiserate with the upside traded away. Mark graduated with Honors Bachelor of Mathematics, Actuarial Science from University of Waterloo.

Basil Stumborg
Senior Business Strategy Advisor, Finance Group
BC Hydro and Power Corporation, Canada

The mandate of the Finance Group is to support better decision making across the company. This means both introducing, teaching, and carrying out structured decision making processes as well as supporting best practice around risk analysis and communication.

I’m just completing the decision analysis / risk assessment for BC Hydro’s Long Term Acquisition Plan for meeting the Province’s energy needs. This work is included the introduction of a Risk Framework to help characterize the uncertainty around the supply and demand side options as well as to capture the key uncertainties on the planning horizon such as GHG offset costs, demand growth, natural gas prices etc.

My other current role is to set up and promulgate Triple Bottom Line decision-making across the company. This structured decision making approach incorporates tools from decision analysis and risk analysis in a way that allows multiple objective tradeoffs to be done rigorously and transparently.

I’ve done graduate work in Economics (MSc and beyond) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison where my interest was in choice under uncertainty and the valuation of non-market goods. I also have my MA in economics from McGill University.

Thompson Terry
Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Thompson Terry is a dedicated member of Palisade’s training and consulting staff. With ten years of experience at Palisade, including eight in technical support, he is recognized as an expert in all Palisade software products and their applications.

Thompson has led numerous regional training seminars on risk and decision analysis and provided customized onsite training in a variety of industries including insurance, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, defense, and food safety. Clients Thompson has trained include: The Hartford, Unilever, Duratek, Eastman Chemical, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, National Rail (UK), RWE Thames Water (UK), National Gas Company of Trinidad & Tobago, Stone & Webster, and Northrop-Grumman.

Thompson is also on the board of directors of a local credit union’s not-for-profit, community development investment fund. He holds a BS in Agricultural Economics from Cornell University with specializations in economics, marketing, and finance.

Poh Boon Ung
Principal Economist
ARCADIS

Mr. Ung is a Principal Economist with ARCADIS and specializes in quantitative decision analysis. He has helped numerous clients identify optimal strategies in light of uncertainties for various environmental issues. Some of his recent models include assessment of dredging and remediation strategies, redevelopment options and evaluation of various restoration projects. In addition to developing decision analysis and statistical models, Mr. Ung manages projects related to water and air regulatory programs. He has prepared cost-benefit assessments for different environmental regulations involving power generating stations, off-road engines, and other environmental impacts from air emissions. He is also experienced in conducting natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) and has been involved in various assessments throughout the United States. Mr. Ung holds an M.A. in Economics from the University of Michigan and a B.A. in Economics and Mathematics from Brandeis University, summa cum laude, where he is a member of Phi Beta Kappa.

Erik Westwig
Software Engineer
Palisade Corporation

Erik Westwig receivedhis B.Sc. in 1991 and M.Sc. in 1994from the applied and engineering physics department at Cornell University. In 1998 he published the book, Mathematical Physics with co-author Bruce Kusse, which was just re-released in its second edition. Since 1995 Erik has worked as a software engineer at Palisade as part of the DecisionTools Suite development team.

Henry Yennie
Program Manager
State of Louisiana Department of Health & Hospitals

Henry Yennie is currently a manager with the Emergency Preparedness section of the Louisiana Department of Health & Hospitals and supports the State Health Officer in emergency preparedness planning and response. He served in the Family Assistance Center after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and is placed in the State Emergency Operations Center for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike this year.

He was formerly the Principal of CNH Consulting and Senior Partner with L3 P Associates, LLC. He has 25 years of professional experience in behavioral health, child welfare, and managed care. Prior to his work with CNH Consulting and L3 P Associates, he has worked as a Senior Associate for OPEN MINDS; as Vice President of Managed Care Services for a managed care organization; and as Administrator for a local community mental health center.

He has worked in management and operations in both service delivery and managed care settings, and he has extensive experience in capitation and case rate development, IT strategy and deployment, financial management, and Activity Based Cost Management. He has presented at many national conferences and has published extensively on various topics.

A graduate of the LSU School of Social Work, he is a licensed social worker and a member of the Healthcare Financial Management Association.