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All sessions in the 2008 Palisade User Conference will be led by experts in their fields. Palisade’s own experienced software instructors and senior consultants join forces with independent consultants and leading managers from industry to provide in-depth content that will be of significant value to all who attend.
Alphabetical by last name:
David Abrahams spent twenty-three years in brand management, new product development, and business management with global consumer goods and service companies. For the last decade he has advised corporate clients on brand-related aspects of risk management. A graduate in law from Cambridge University, he is a member of The Chartered Institute of Arbitrators with accreditation as a commercial mediator. He is the author of “Brand Risk – Adding Risk Literacy to Brand Management” to be published in March 2008.
CEIGRAM (Research Center for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risk)
Salomon Aguado-Manzanares has an M.Sc degree in Financial Economics from the University Complutense of Madrid, and in Agricultural Economics from the Technical University of Madrid. He has a B.Sc degree in Business Administration, and in Actuarial and Financial Science, both from University Charles III of Madrid. He obtained the First National Award of Excellent Academic Record by Government.
Aguado-Manzanares is an actuary and has worked as a researcher for five years at CEIGRAM (Research Center for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risk). He is preparing his PhD thesis on Risk Management in Agriculture, specifically about evaluation and prospecting revenue insurance in Spain, and he uses simulations for designing agricultural insurance.
Michael Brand is a founding director of Captum Capital Limited, an innovative consulting company which provides business development services to early stage life science companies. Captum offers a series of training courses in business development, including the highly successful Valuing Life Science Technology MasterClass, which has been attended by over 350 executives. Michael spent most of his career in the USA holding senior executive level positions in multi-national corporations, including a venture capital company. He has successfully negotiated international joint venture, licensing and investment agreements. He holds a PhD from Imperial College, London, a MBA from the Sloan School, MIT, Boston, and the Investment Management Certificate of the CFA Society of the UK; he is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry.
Cambridge/ Loughborough University
Ujjwal is pursuing an Engineering Doctorate at Loughborough University and is on secondment to TWI Ltd, Cambridge. His research interest lies in risk based assessment of equipment and structures. After completing his basic degree in Electrical and Electronics engineering, he served in industry in the maintenance sector. He then studied Risk Management at the London School of Economics at the Master's level before taking up the engineering doctorate.
Dr Douglas Cardoso
Dr Douglas Cardoso concluded his doctorate in Business Administration at Federal University of Minas Gerais (Brasil) in 2007, emphasis on Strategy. Some years before, he had concluded his Master Science degree in the same University, emphasis on Finance. He has 9 years experience as a teacher in Brasilian universities, both in college and in post graduation courses. Today he is Corporate Risk Manager at ArcelorMittal Corporate in Luxembourg, having started in the company 21 years ago, in ArcelorMittal Monlevade (former Belgo Mineira), in Brasil. He published many articles in specialized journals as also as works in events’ annals. He participated in several international and Brasilian events. He oriented 49 final works in the administration area. He received 9 awards and/or honours. Between 2003 and 2004 he coordinated one research project. He works in the area of administration, with emphasis on: Finance, Strategy and Risk Management. In his academic activities interact with 4 collaborators as co-authors of scientific papers. In his Curriculum Lattes (http://lattes.cnpq.br/0419939495412217) the terms most frequently in the contextualization of his scientific, technological and artistic-cultural production are: ERP, Neural Networks, Steel, SAP R/3, Long Steel, Structural Equations, Strategy, Finance, Information Systems and Continuous Casting.
Director of Sales
Manuel joined Palisade UK Ltd in 2003 as European sales director. He currently works with Palisade’s European customers to help them implement @RISK and other Palisade products in their organisations. He has spent most of his career in Europe working in various management and business development positions in the software industry. In 1994 he received a diploma in Computing for Commerce and Industry from the University of Barcelona, and an MBA from the University of Westminster in 2002.
Dr Jennifer I Considine
Senior Research Associate, Center for Energy Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy
University of Dundee
Dr Jennifer I Considine is a Senior Research Associate at the Center for Energy Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at the University of Dundee, Scotland. She is actively pursuing a number of research projects in the area of Resource Curse, Scottish Energy Policy, Emissions Trading, Russian Crude Oil Supply, and Global Energy Policy. Her latest lists of projects includes acting rapporteur for the Economic and Social Research Council, "Econometric Modelling of Energy and Soft Commodity Prices with Applications". Award Holder: Dr S. E. Satchell and Dr A. Sancetta, Cambridge University, United Kingdom. Dr Considine is a Staff Scientist with Innervision Medical Technologies Inc. in Calgary, Alberta Canada. In this capacity, she is responsible for the mathematical and statistical modeling, signal processing and design of a new Ultra High Resolution Imaging technology for the early detection of breast cancer. She currently holds the position of Chief Editor, Energy Politics, an energy newsletter dealing with commercial strategies, and strategic planning in the global energy industry. Dr Considine is a member of the Board of Directors for Canada Post, and founding member of a number of initiatives to promote Scottish-Canadian relations including the Alberta Friends of Elgin, and the Canadian Friends of Scotland.
Dr Considine holds a Ph.D. in resource economics from the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, and a M.A. in International Finance from the University of Chicago. On the research side, Dr Considine has published a number of books and numerous articles concerning the global energy industry, with a focus on the history and development of the upstream petroleum industry in the Russian Federation. Her latest project: "Transformation and Reform in the Russian Energy Sector", Joint Project on Revitalizing Russian Industry, University of Calgary-Gorbachev Foundation Public Policy Project (UCGF'99), has recently been accepted for publication.
Decision Analysis Group, Unilever
Andrea Dickens joined Unilever in 1988 as a statistician. Since then she has had a number of roles in Unilever, but all with one thing in common: managing and analysing uncertainty.
Andrea now leads the Decision Analysis Group, which has been developing and applying a wide range of decision analysis techniques. These techniques have been deployed on probabilistic business cases and complex decision problems throughout Unilever. The group also leads the development and rollout of training courses for Unilever Managers in Decision Making techniques, and provides coaching to course participants. In addition, the Decision Analysis Group has an internal consultancy role where they provide facilitative leadership to analyse complex business decisions. These tend to be the large, difficult and sensitive problems, high stake one-off decisions, or problems that cross organisational boundaries.
Senior Consultant, Forecasting
Moore Stephens Consulting LLP
David Edison graduated in 1993 from the University of Kent at Canterbury with a degree in Actuarial Science before spending his early career with a Lloyd’s of London syndicate. He then worked with two leading firms of consulting actuaries, one in the insurance field, the other in pensions. He joined Moore Stephens in 1998. David has spent the last ten years using @RISK to apply actuarial, statistical and stochastic risk modeling techniques to a range of industries. He is responsible for statistical modeling teams for both Moore Stephens Consulting in London and Moore Stephens Business Solutions in New York, and services clients throughout the world, including Latin America. Of the challenges he has faced in a decade of consulting, the greatest has often been explaining results to non-statistically minded clients and maximizing the benefits that can be gained by presenting modeling outputs using ever-advancing technologies and techniques.
Frank Lyhne Hansen
Frank Lyhne Hansen is a MSc Math. + Econ. from Copenhagen University and Associate Professor at Copenhagen Business School (department of finance). He has more than 15 years experience working with risk management and finance. He has lead a number of Enterprise Risk Management projects in major companies in Europe and USA. Also Basel II and Solvency II projects have been part of his work during the last 15 years. He has contributed to the academic literature and been a speaker at several international conferences. Teaching risk management courses at Copenhagen Business School, London Business School and the University of New York. He is the leader of the ERM-team at PwC Denmark and a member of the steering group in PwC Eurofirm.
Knut Hollund has a master of science in Mathematical Statistics from the University of Oslo (1991). His first working year was military service as a research scientist at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, and since then he has worked within the oil and gas business with decision support and statistical modeling. Knut worked for Norsk Hydro from 1992 to 2000, and has since been employed by Norwegian Computing Center. During this period he has worked for The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, and for a range of oil companies, primarily Norsk Hydro and Statoil. Knut’s current focus is working for the merged StatoilHydro.
Dr Mirek Janusz
Mirek Janusz is a software engineer at Palisade Corp. He holds a masters degree in computer science from Cornell University. He helped develop Palisade applications for risk analysis, statistical analysis and optimization, and has assisted other companies in integrating Palisade Developer's Kits into their own applications. He was the lead developer for Palisade's new Excel add-in for neural networks, NeuralTools.
President and CEO
Sam McLafferty is Palisade's founder, president, and CEO. He started the company in 1984 with the release of PRISM, a stand-alone Monte Carlo simulation package for DOS on the PC. PRISM later evolved into @RISK for Lotus 1-2-3, and then for Excel. Sam is Palisade's lead developer, with over thirty years of programming experience. He works closely with the technical and sales staff, ensuring that customer feedback is heard. He personally oversees the development and evolution of every one of the fifteen software products Palisade sells. Prior to Palisade, he was a risk analysis consultant.
Dr Raj Nataraja
Head of Quantitative Analysis
Dr Raj graduated in 1966 and obtained his doctorate in aeronautical engineering in 1974 from Loughborough University in the UK. He has over ten years teaching and academic research experience, and over twenty eight years in the oil and gas industry. He was R&D Manager at Lloyd’s Register, Brown and Root, Kaverner Earl and Wright, and during the latter years he worked for Noble Denton. Since late 2005, he has been the head of Quantitative Analysis at Chase Cooper. He has worked as an advisor on a number of academic and industry committees involved in R&D (SERC, MTD, Den, HSE, Offshore Research Strategy Board etc).
Dr Raj has managed and supervised a number of R&D projects related to front end technology leading to innovative design in the oil and gas industry. Many of these projects required development of analytical tools for stochastic modeling, probabilistic analysis, risk and reliability analysis, and safety engineering. In his present capacity he is applying his analytical experience to the development of operational risk management tools for the financial industry, and provides quantitative analysis consultancy.
Dr Michael Rees
Michael has 20 years’ of business and finance experience, including roles such as Principal (Partner) at the strategy consultants Mercer Management Consulting (now Oliver Wyman) and Vice-President of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan. He has worked independently for 8 years, for 6 of which he was retained by Palisade Corporation to act as their Director of Training and Consulting. He is the author of Financial Modelling in Practice: A Concise Guide for intermediate and Advanced Level, John Wiley & Sons, 2008).
His academic credentials include a Doctorate in Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Algorithms, and a B.A. with First Class Honours in Mathematics, both from Oxford University. He has an MBA with Distinction from INSEAD in France, as well as holding the Wilmott Certificate of Quantitative Finance, where he graduated top of the course for class work and also received the Wilmott Award for the highest final exam mark. Michael is based in the UK and speaks fluent French and German.
Decision Analysis Group
Dr Sven Roden is a senior Decision Analyst within Unilever’s Finance Academy, acting as an internal consultant leading decision analysis evaluations on problems where teams have been struggling to find a solution. He is also involved in developing new methodologies and providing expert training and coaching to Unilever's financial managers. Prior to joining Unilever, Sven worked for BNFL as a Technology Strategist and research physicist.
Dr. Saadah is a Board Certified Pharmacotherapy Specialist (BCPS) from the Board of Pharmaceutical Specialties in the USA since December 2007. He is currently working as a clinical pharmacist in critical care settings in Tawam Hospital, The United Arab Emirates, in affiliation with Johns Hopkins Medicine, USA. He received his Bachelor of Science in Pharmacy (May 1999) from Jordan University for Science and Technology, a Master of Science in Hospital Clinical Pharmacy (December 2002) from the University of Iowa, and a Doctor of Pharmacy (PharmD) with special honors and high distinction from the University of Iowa (July 2006), Iowa, USA. Dr. Saadah’s main area of clinical practice is in the pediatrics and neonatal intensive care units where he is responsible, together with medical teams, for devising, implementing, monitoring, and modifying patient-individualized care plans. Dr. Saadah is interested in an array of medical and pharmaceutical fields; including infectious diseases, cardiology, and neurology, where he aims at solving clinical problems with artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms software applications. He brings an experience of almost a decade in practice, research, education, and innovation in pharmacy, has been an invited speaker to a number of scientific meetings and was involved in the publication of several medical articles.
Fátima Santos is a Transportation Consultant, graduated in Civil Engineering, field of Transportation and Territorial Planning, at Instituto Superior Técnico (IST), Technical University of Lisbon. She complemented her academic qualification with the scholar part of the Master in Transportation and she post-graduated in Marketing Research and Customer Relationship Management. Since 1997 she participated in several consultancy projects and studies in the domain of urban mobility and design of public transport networks, high speed train networks operational studies, transport surveys and marketing research, mobility surveys, transport economics, environmental and social impact of transport systems, transport demand estimation, regional planning. She is a TIS member since 1999.
Jaime Gabriel Silva
Director of Engineering
Águas do Douro e Paiva S.A.
Silva has a MSc degree in Building Construction, and graduated as Civil Engineer from the Faculty of Engineering of Oporto’s University. He received the Prof. Barbosa Abreu Award, distinguishing the best student of the Masters in Building Construction programme, 5th edition (1994-96). He serves as an Adjunct Professor at the Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto in the Civil Engineering Department.
In August 1998, Silva joined Águas do Douro e Paiva, a water supply company for Oporto’s region, becoming the Director of Engineering in 2000. He is responsible for the company’s systems project management.
Previous experience includes: seven years at engineering enterprise Fase; one year at a Construction Laboratory CICCOPN; two years as system engineer at IBM Corporation; and three years at a Portuguese regional administration organization - CCRN.
Inês graduated in Territorial Engineering by Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon (1999). She has complemented her academic qualifications with scholar Master Programme in Operational Research and System Engineering. She has developed her professional career as a planner and manager road projects, specializing in traffic demand studies for new road infra structures. In TIS.pt enterprise she is working on research and consultancy projects covering areas such as cost-benefit analyses and transport model development.
Viktor Thorisson is an industrial engineer and works as an analyst at the Icelandic geothermal energy company Enex. His work consists in feasibility analysis of potential projects, development of financial model and simulation applications (@RISK), where input variables to financial modeling are with high degree of randomness, such as what to expect from a geothermal well, application of decision theory to real life problems and other analytical problem solving. Viktor studied both in Iceland (University of Iceland) as well as in Argentina (Universidad del Salvador) and has experience as a support teacher in computer science at the University of Iceland.
Ian is a qualified accountant (ACMA) and spent the first 10 years of his career working in finance functions within the pharmaceutical and precious metal refining industries. Here he gained valuable experience in managing staff, preparing financial and management accounts, and working closely with business managers to help develop project appraisals, corporate plans and annual budgets.
Ian then decided to move into management consultancy with KPMG and worked on a wide variety of interesting projects throughout Europe and the Middle East, both in the private and public sectors. Most of his work was project management related and involved the selection and implementation of the latest systems and business processes within the finance function. Work included preparing strategy studies and business cases for change, PFI and supplier evaluations, recruiting project teams, leading systems design and working with all the management and stakeholders connected with the change. As a result, Ian has considerable experience of project management methodologies such as PRINCE 2 and others.
It was during the course of this work that Ian came across Monte Carlo Simulation and @RISK. He found it such a useful tool for managing expectations, developing risk-efficient plans and getting adequate resources for his projects that in 2001 he decided to specialise in the technique. Ian has now been working closely with Palisade since 2005, and during this time has delivered numerous on-site customer training sessions, public classroom courses, web-conference training sessions, and consultancy projects.
Ian's wide experience, together with his communication skills, enable him to communicate complex subjects using everyday, easy to understand language.
Tim Wells BSc.
Maritime Business Group, Halcrow Group Ltd
Tim Wells is a consultant and project manager with Halcrow Group Ltd. Halcrow specialises in the provision of planning, design, and management services for infrastructure development worldwide. With interests in transportation, water, maritime, and property, the company is undertaking commissions in over 70 countries from a network of more than 70 offices.
Tim provides Group wide support and advice on risk and decision analysis in a variety of disciplines including, flood risk, project risk, strategic planning, and formal uncertainty analysis. As part of this work Tim has helped apply @RISK software in a variety of projects to support decision making and add value to internal and external clients.
Erik Westwig receivedhis B.Sc. in 1991 and M.Sc. in 1994from the applied and engineering physics department at Cornell University. In 1998 he published the book, Mathematical Physics with co-author Bruce Kusse, which was just re-released in its second edition. Since 1995 Eric has worked as a software engineer at Palisade aspart of the DecisionTools Suite development team.
Dr Paul Wilmott, Keynote Speaker
Dr Paul Wilmott is a financial consultant, specializing in derivatives, risk management and quantitative finance. He has worked with many leading US and European financial institutions. He is a member of the Physics in Finance Committee of the Institute of Physics, and is on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Paul studied mathematics at St Catherine's College, Oxford, where he also received his D.Phil. He founded the Diploma in Mathematical Finance at Oxford University and the journal Applied Mathematical Finance. He is the author of Paul Wilmott Introduces Quantitative Finance (Wiley 2007), Paul Wilmott On Quantitative Finance (Wiley 2006), Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance (Wiley 2006) and other financial textbooks. He has written over 100 research articles on finance and mathematics.
Dr Paul Wilmott was a founding partner of the volatility arbitrage hedge fund Caissa Capital which managed $170 million. His responsibilities included forecasting, derivatives pricing, and risk management.
Dr Wilmott is the proprietor of www.wilmott.com, the popular quantitative finance community website, the quant magazine Wilmott and is the Course Director for the Certificate in Quantitative Finance.