All sessions in the 2007 Palisade User Conference will be led by experts in their fields. Palisade’s own experienced software instructors and senior consultants will join forces with independent consultants and leading managers from industry to provide in-depth content that will be of significant value to all who attend.
Alphabetical by Last Name
Ujjwal is pursuing an Engineering Doctorate at Loughborough University and has been seconded to The Welding Institute (TWI) at Cambridge. His research interest lies in risk based assessment of Offshore Equipment and Structures. After completing his basic degree in Electrical and Electronics engineering, Ujjwal served in industry in the maintenance sector, and then studied Risk Management at the London School of Economics at the Master's level before taking up the engineering doctorate
Dr. Michael Brand
Dr. Michael Brand is a founding director of Captum Capital Limited, an innovative consulting company which provides business development services to early stage life science companies. He has spent most of his career in the USA holding senior executive positions in technology management at Technicon Instruments, Occidental Chemical and Engelhard Industries. He gained venture capital experience at 3i Corporation Boston, the US subsidiary of the 3i Group plc. He has successfully negotiated several international licensing, joint venture and investment agreements, including two US-Japanese joint ventures. Michael was the founding President of the British American Business Council of New England, which in 2006 celebrated its twentieth successful year. He is a non-executive director of Derby Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. He gained his PhD at Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, and his MBA at MIT’s Sloan School of Management; he holds the Investment Management Certificate of the UK Society of Investment Professionals.
Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
Manuel joined Palisade UK Ltd in 2003 as European sales director. He currently works with Palisade’s European customers to help them implement @RISK and other Palisade products in their organisations. He has spent most of his career in Europe working in various management and business development positions in the software industry. In 1994 he received a diploma in Computing for Commerce and Industry from the University of Barcelona, and an MBA from the University of Westminster in 2002
Philip J Comer
Philip Comer is a Chemical Engineer with more than 30 years experience working as a consultant specialising in risk assessment and risk management. He was involved in some of the early applications of risk assessment to the chemical and oil and gas industries in Europe in the 1980s. From 1996 he has been responsible for over 50 studies assessing the potential risks in connection with the epidemic of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle and the emergence of new variant CJD. The studies have included assessments of the potential for exposure to infectivity through environmental pathways, exposure through food, and risks from blood and blood products. Philip is a Principal Consultant in Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and is the Business Leader responsible for food related activities within the UK.
Dr. Jennifer I Considine
Dr. Jennifer I Considine is a Senior Research Associate at the Center for Energy Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at the University of Dundee, Scotland. She is actively pursuing a number of research projects in the area of Resource Curse, Scottish Energy Policy, Emissions Trading, Russian Crude Oil Supply, and Global Energy Policy. Her latest lists of projects includes acting rapporteur for the Economic and Social Research Council, "Econometric Modelling of Energy and Soft Commodity Prices with Applications". Award Holder: Dr. S. E. Satchell and Dr. A. Sancetta, Cambridge University, United Kingdom. Dr. Considine is a Staff Scientist with Innervision Medical Technologies Inc. in Calgary, Alberta Canada. In this capacity, she is responsible for the mathematical and statistical modeling, signal processing and design of a new Ultra High Resolution Imaging technology for the early detection of breast cancer. She currently holds the position of Chief Editor, Energy Politics, an energy newsletter dealing with commercial strategies, and strategic planning in the global energy industry. Dr. Considine is a member of the Board of Directors for Canada Post, and founding member of a number of initiatives to promote Scottish-Canadian relations including the Alberta Friends of Elgin, and the Canadian Friends of Scotland.
Dr. Considine holds a Ph.D. in resource economics from the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, and a M.A. in International Finance from the University of Chicago. On the research side, Dr. Considine has published a number of books and numerous articles concerning the global energy industry, with a focus on the history and development of the upstream petroleum industry in the Russian Federation. Her latest project: "Transformation and Reform in the Russian Energy Sector", Joint Project on Revitalizing Russian Industry, University of Calgary-Gorbachev Foundation Public Policy Project (UCGF'99), has recently been accepted for publication.
Koen Dillen received his and M.Sc. in 2006 from the faculty of bioscience engineering majoring in agricultural economics at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. Afterwards he started working as a pre-doctoral fellow at the department of agricultural and food economics. He cooperates in the EUWAB project (European Union Welfare effects of Agricultural Biotechnology), assessing the economic impact of agricultural biotechnology innovations in the EU and their welfare distribution among Member States, producers, processors, consumers, input suppliers, governments and the environment.
Dr. Martin Erdmann, Director Risk Management, Infineon Technologies
Martin Erdmann has been a specialist in risk assessments since 2004 when he joined the Corporate Risk Management department at Infineon. Since 2006 he has headed Infineon’s Risk Management department and takes responsibility for all company wide Risk Management activities. Before that he worked for 5 years as project manager in the area of wired communication systems. Prior to joining Infineon in 1999 Martin worked as Application Consultant and Manager for Synopsys, a US based company for electronic design solutions. Martin studied Electrical Engineering in Bochum, Germany, and holds a ‘Dr.-Ing.’ degree from the University of Wuppertal, Germany.
Christian R. Gärtner - Union Investment Management Holding AG
Christian Gärtner is Head of Methods and Analysis within the R&D department of Union Investment. His main responsibility is to develop complex investment products. Before joining Union he worked four years for Capgemini as a managerial consultant in the area of risk management. Earlier stations of his career were Dresdner Bank (Head of Risk Control in Hong Kong and Singapore) and UBS (trader floating rate notes).
Frank Lyhne Hansen
Frank Lyhne Hansen is a MSc Math. + Econ. from Copenhagen University and Associate Professor at Copenhagen Business School (department of finance). He has more than 15 years experience working with risk management and finance. He has lead a number of Enterprise Risk Management projects in major companies in Europe and USA. Also Basel II and Solvency II projects have been part of his work during the last 15 years. He has contributed to the academic literature and been a speaker at several international conferences. Teaching risk management courses at Copenhagen Business School, London Business School and the University of New York. He is the leader of the ERM-team at PwC Denmark and a member of the steering group in PwC Eurofirm.
Allan Hedin, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company
Allan Hedin holds a MSc in Engineering Physics and a PhD in ion physics from the University of Uppsala. He has been a safety analyst at the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co since 1994. Originally employed to manage probabilistic calculations of radionuclide transport and dose, he is now managing the entire safety assessment of final repositories for spent nuclear fuel. He has developed fast, analytical Excel models that mimic key aspects of complex models, thereby gaining insight into key aspects of the modelled processes and reducing calculation time, in particular for probabilistic calculations. His main interest is currently in assessment methodology, in particular on the systematic extraction of key information from the complex knowledge base on which the assessment is built. Allan Hedin has taken active part in the international collaboration in the area of safety assessments of nuclear waste repositories and been a member of several international review teams set up by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, assessing other countries’ safety cases.
Dany Hoter entered the field of software development in the early 70’s and has been involved in different activities in this field ever since. Dany is an expert in database technologies, BI and OLAP. For the last 6 years Dany has been part of the Excel team as a senior product planner. In this role Dany is charged with collecting customer feedback, working with the development team in Redmond on the best ways to satisfy customer needs, and with taking one of the most popular software products in the world to new territories.
Dr. Mirek Janusz, Palisade Corporation
Mirek Janusz is a software engineer at Palisade Corp. He holds a masters degree in computer science from Cornell University. He helped develop Palisade applications for risk analysis, statistical analysis and optimization, and has assisted other companies in integrating Palisade Developer's Kits into their own applications. He was the lead developer for Palisade's new Excel add-in for neural networks, NeuralTools.
Dr. Zsolt Komlosi
Dr. Zsolt Komlosi is a senior advisor at the integrated oil company Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc. He is responsible for controlling the economics and risks of the company's significant projects assessing probabilistic methods including decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, and portfolio optimization. Dr. Komlosi is experienced in evaluation economics in various finance and taxation systems. Dr. Komlosi holds doctoral degrees in Petrophysics from Miskolc University and in Applied Economics from Budapest University of Economic Sciences. He holds lectures of special course entitled "Economic questions of petroleum business" at Miskolc University. He has held several presentations and short courses about evaluation economics and application stochastic modeling.
Dr. Wilhelm K. Kross
Dr. Wilhelm K. Kross is a recognized expert in the fields of project- and risk management. As a director of Value & Risk AG, Dr. Kross has worked for banks, IT services providers, and energy traders since early 2000. In the 1990s he applied his expertise to industrial projects in North and South America and Africa. He has also held various positions as a trustee, manager, or director of professional bodies and interest groups, including his current appointment as VP Finance of the PMI Frankfurt Chapter. Dr. Kross obtained a postgraduate degree in engineering from RWTH Aachen, Germany, an executive MBA from Athabasca University, Canada, and a doctoral degree in finance from the European Business School, Oestrich Winkel, Germany.
Sam McLafferty, President and CEO, Palisade Corporation
Sam McLafferty is Palisade's founder, president, and CEO. He started the company in 1984 with the release of PRISM, a stand-alone Monte Carlo simulation package for DOS on the PC. PRISM later evolved into @RISK for Lotus 1-2-3, and then for Excel. Sam is Palisade's lead developer, with over thirty years of programming experience. He works closely with the technical and sales staff, ensuring that customer feedback is heard. He personally oversees the development and evolution of every one of the fifteen software products Palisade sells. Prior to Palisade, he was a risk analysis consultant.
Tim Mobley - Istria
Istria Ltd, a UK based risk management company, has incorporated the @RISK Developers Kit into an end to end software solution that manages risks from identification through to their conclusion. In this session, Istria will use a live case study from the aerospace & defence sector to illustrate how @RISK can be used to integrate simple qualitative assessments into a robust statistical analysis tool.
Dr. Viviane Youssef Naïmy
Dr. Viviane Youssef Naïmy holds a Ph.D. in Economics-Finance from Paris XI University and a Doctoral degree in Finance. Since then she has been teaching in the Finance & Economics departments in the Faculty of Business and Economics at Notre Dame University-Lebanon and in the School of Business at the American University in Dubai. She has taught courses in corporate finance, investment, options and futures, financial modelling to all levels of students: undergraduates, MBAs, and Executive students. In addition she has taught simulation modelling and portfolio management at the Saint Joseph University-Lebanon. She is currently the Director of Tests, Measurement, and Evaluation and of Admissions Offices at Notre Dame University – Lebanon
She has published over 13 articles in leading finance and economics research journals in the area of risk management, investment, and corporate finance. She has authored the book of Emerging Markets, Financing of SMEs, and Economic Growth: the Case of Lebanon.
She has worked for several national and international banks and she launched the first Mutual Fund in Lebanon, in 1996 and has structured one of the largest syndicated loans at Société Générale (Lebanon). For the World Bank, she assessed the feasibility of introducing the securitization process in the banking sector in Lebanon. For the American University in Dubai in 2006, she contributed into installing the first “Academic” Dealing Room in the UAE.
Adam Ogilvie-Smith manages Thales Management Consultancy UK, within the defence, aerospace and security systems group Thales, offering management consultancy in the fields of business modelling, business development, business improvement, and change management. As part of these services, Adam provides business and risk modelling and analysis, in many different forms to a variety of clients. Services have included:
- business planning and forecasting for startup ventures;
- sensitivity analysis of business cases;
- comparative investment modelling and analysis of growth opportunities;
- analysis of risks and uncertainties in major (£billion) tenders;
- developing risk analysis and measurement methodologies;
- comparative modelling of operational effectiveness of defence systems; and
- providing sound advice to businesses, based upon his modelling and analysis.
Prior to working for Thales, Adam worked in GCHQ, the Cabinet Office and KPMG. Adam holds a BSc in Mathematics & Statistics from Edinburgh University and an MBA from the Open University.
Shabab Qadar, Head of Research, UK and Ireland, Grosvenor Estates
As Head of UK and Ireland Research, Shabab’s key role is to ensure that business decisions and strategy are informed by the best possible understanding of the macro-economy. He is responsible for forecasting performance in Grosvenor's UK and Ireland markets and financial modelling of development and investment appraisals. Shabab joined Grosvenor in 2002 as Research Analyst after working for three years as an Economist at the Engineering Employers Federation where he was responsible for economic analysis of issues affecting manufacturing companies, co-ordinating business surveys and recommending changes to government policy. Shabab has an MSc in Economics from the University of London, and is a member of the Society of Business Economists, and a member of the Society of Property Researchers.
Dr. Michael Rees, Palisade Corporation
Michael has 20 years’ of business and finance experience, including roles such as Principal (Partner) at the strategy consultants Mercer Management Consulting (now Oliver Wyman) and Vice-President of Equity Research at J.P. Morgan. He has worked independently for 8 years, for 6 of which he was retained by Palisade Corporation to act as their Director of Training and Consulting. He is the author of Financial Modelling in Practice: A Concise Guide for intermediate and Advanced Level, John Wiley & Sons, 2008).
His academic credentials include a Doctorate in Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Algorithms, and a B.A. with First Class Honours in Mathematics, both from Oxford University. He has an MBA with Distinction from INSEAD in France, as well as holding the Wilmott Certificate of Quantitative Finance, where he graduated top of the course for class work and also received the Wilmott Award for the highest final exam mark. Michael is based in the UK and speaks fluent French and German.
Dr. Sven Roden, Decision Analysis Group, Finance Academy
Dr. Sven Roden is a senior Decision Analyst within Unilever’s Finance Academy, acting as an internal consultant leading decision analysis evaluations on problems where teams have been struggling to find a solution. He is also involved in developing new methodologies and providing expert training and coaching to Unilever's financial managers. Prior to joining Unilever, Sven worked for BNFL as a Technology Strategist and research physicist.
David Vose, Vose Consulting
David Vose has been a specialist consultant in risk analysis since 1989. David started directly applying risk analysis as a marketing and new projects analyst to an oil and gas exploration company in New Zealand. Since then, he has applied risk analysis modelling principles to a wide range of problems and industries including oil, gas and LPG marketing and production, diamond mining, forestry, epidemiology and food safety, and more. David is based in Europe overseeing the Vose Consulting Group. His role is to supervise the technical aspects of their work as well as providing specialised consulting. He is also author of the textbook Risk Analysis, published by John Wiley and Sons.
Ian Wallace, Palisade Corporation
Ian is a qualified accountant (ACMA) and spent the first 10 years of his career working in finance functions within the pharmaceutical and precious metal refining industries. Here he gained valuable experience in managing staff, preparing financial and management accounts, and working closely with business managers to help develop project appraisals, corporate plans and annual budgets.
Ian then decided to move into management consultancy with KPMG and worked on a wide variety of interesting projects throughout Europe and the Middle East, both in the private and public sectors. Most of his work was project management related and involved the selection and implementation of the latest systems and business processes within the finance function. Work included preparing strategy studies and business cases for change, PFI and supplier evaluations, recruiting project teams, leading systems design and working with all the management and stakeholders connected with the change. As a result, Ian has considerable experience of project management methodologies such as PRINCE 2 and others.
It was during the course of this work that Ian came across Monte Carlo Simulation and @RISK. He found it such a useful tool for managing expectations, developing risk-efficient plans and getting adequate resources for his projects that in 2001 he decided to specialise in the technique. Ian has now been working closely with Palisade since 2005, and during this time has delivered numerous on-site customer training sessions, public classroom courses, web-conference training sessions, and consultancy projects.
Ian's wide experience, together with his communication skills, enable him to communicate complex subjects using everyday, easy to understand language.
Erik Westwig, Palisade Corporation
Erik Westwig received his B.Sc. in 1991 and M.Sc. in 1994 from the applied and engineering physics department at Cornell University. In 1998 he published the book, Mathematical Physics with co-author Bruce Kusse, which was just re-released in its second edition. Since 1995 Eric has worked as a software engineer at Palisade Corporation as part of The DecisionTools Suite development team.
Karl Woods has a B.Sc. in Marine Sciences (University of Southampton) and a M.Sc. in Offshore and Ocean Technology specialising in Risk Management (Cranfield University). Karl’s experience with The Decision Tools Suite includes the application of Precision Tree to model functional failure mechanisms and using @Risk to support economic feasibility assessments of renewable energy devices and reliability value analysis. The latter is the subject of his Engineering Doctorate, which he continues at Cranfield University under the industrial sponsorship of Atkins Boreas Consultants.